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Risk Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz Sparks Oil to Turn Bullish Again
Focus on Crude Oil:
Any US intervention in the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a breach of the ceasefire, said a senior Iranian official.
Seven major OPEC+ members confirmed plans to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day in June.
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Monday, May 4, 2026 - This morning's market open shows oil prices moving slightly bullish, triggered by rising risks of escalation in the Strait of Hormuz following the Trump Freedom Project plan. On the other hand, the confirmation of OPEC+ production increase limits further price movement.
Iranian parliament's national security committee chief, Ebrahim Azizi, warned on Sunday that any US intervention in the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a breach of the ceasefire. The warning was issued following Trump's announcement that on Monday morning, the US would launch the "Freedom Project" to free ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, deploying 15,000 US military personnel, more than 100 land and sea-based aircraft, as well as warships and drones.
Also from the Middle East, a tanker was reportedly hit by an unknown projectile while passing approximately 78 nautical miles north of Fujairah city in the United Arab Emirates, said the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) on Monday. The attack followed an assault on a bulk cargo ship by several small boats while passing north about 11 nautical miles west of Sirik, Iran, on Sunday, added UKMTO.
Meanwhile, in a virtual meeting held on Sunday, seven major OPEC+ member countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—confirmed they will increase production by 188,000 bpd in June, from additional voluntary production adjustments in April and November 2023. The decision indicates that the producer alliance will continue increasing output despite the UAE's exit, said an OPEC+ source.
Adding pressure to prices, Iraqi Deputy Minister of Oil Basim Mohammed stated on Saturday that Iraq's production and exports could recover to normal levels within seven days after the end of the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Mohammed said Iraq's current production is 1.5 million bpd, with about 200,000 bpd exported through Ceyhan, while two tankers have been prepared and two more are expected to arrive depending on security conditions in the strait.
From a technical perspective, oil prices may encounter the nearest resistance at $104 per barrel. However, if negative catalysts appear, prices could fall to the nearest support at $99 per barrel.