#USSeeksStrategicBitcoinReserve

Rising Risk of Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz Triggers Oil to Turn Bullish Again
Focus on Crude Oil:
Any US intervention in the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a breach of the ceasefire, said a senior Iranian official.
Seven major OPEC+ members confirm plans to increase production by 188,000 bph in June.
************************************************************
Monday, May 4, 2026 - At the opening of this morning's session, oil prices were seen moving lower in a bullish correction, driven by rising risks of escalation of tension in the Strait of Hormuz following the Trump Project Freedom. On the other hand, confirmation of the OPEC+ production increase limits further price movement.
Ebrahim Azizi, head of the national security commission in Iran’s parliament, warned on Sunday that any US intervention in the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a breach of the ceasefire. The warning came after Trump announced that on Monday morning the US would begin the “Project Freedom” to free ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz by deploying 15,000 US military personnel, more than 100 land- and sea-based aircraft, as well as warships and drones.
Still from the Middle East, a tanker was reportedly hit by an unknown projectile while passing about 78 nautical miles north of Fujairah city in the United Arab Emirates, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said on Monday. The attack followed an assault on a bulk cargo carrier by several small boats while passing north about 11 nautical miles west of Sirik, Iran, on Sunday, UKMTO added.
Meanwhile, at a virtual meeting held on Sunday, seven major OPEC+ member countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—confirmed they will increase production by 188,000 bph in June, from additional voluntary production adjustments in April and November 2023. The decision signals that the producer alliance will continue its production ramp-up despite the UAE’s exit, according to an OPEC+ source.
Adding to price pressure, Iraqi Deputy Minister of Oil Basim Mohammed said on Saturday he is optimistic that Iraq’s oil production and exports can return to normal levels within seven days after the end of the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Mohammed said Iraq’s current production is 1.5 million bph, with about 200,000 bph exported via Ceyhan, while two tankers have been readied and two more are expected to arrive depending on security conditions in the strait.
From a technical perspective, oil prices may face the nearest resistance at the $104 per barrel level. However, if negative catalysts emerge, prices could fall to the nearest support at the $99 per barrel level.