Gemini obtains CFTC derivatives license, enters the prediction market to challenge Kalshi and Polymarket

Founded by brothers Cameron Winklevoss and Tyler Winklevoss, the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini (NYSE: GEMI) recently successfully obtained a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) license issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This crucial license not only allows Gemini to venture into the heavily regulated derivatives sector but also signifies their official entry into the fastest-growing and most fiercely competitive battlefield in the crypto space—prediction markets.
After obtaining the DCO license, Gemini will be able to handle trade clearing and settlement independently, no longer relying on third-party service providers, thereby gaining absolute control over the operation mechanisms and scale expansion of their prediction market products.
Following the announcement, Gemini’s stock price rose approximately 7%.
Prediction markets are undoubtedly one of the fastest-growing areas in the current cryptocurrency field, with trading volume expected to surpass $63.5 billion in 2025, an annual growth rate of over 300%. Decentralized derivatives platform Hyperliquid is also gearing up to challenge the dominance of existing giants Kalshi and Polymarket, while traditional Wall Street capital is also not planning to sit out.
It is reported that asset management firm Roundhill Investments plans to launch the first U.S.-based ETF linked to prediction markets on May 5; additionally, two other asset management firms are actively preparing similar products, indicating that the “event trading” craze has spread from the crypto world to traditional capital markets.
In fact, Gemini first launched a prediction market through another affiliated company, Gemini Titan, in December 2025, and obtained a designated contract market (DCM) license from the CFTC. Now with both DCM and DCO licenses, Gemini states that the company is ready to build a “comprehensive trading ecosystem,” with business expansion across sports, cryptocurrencies, futures, options, and event contracts. At the same time, the company also expressed intentions to launch crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts for U.S. users.
“Today marks a significant milestone in Gemini’s expansion of its market footprint,” said founder Cameron Winklevoss in a statement, describing this development as an important step toward realizing the company’s grand blueprint of creating a financial services “super app.”
In February this year, Gemini publicly announced its exit from the UK, EU, and Australian markets, laying off about 25% of staff, while clearly stating that it would focus entirely on the U.S. and enter the prediction market. At that time, the two founders said: