#Gate广场五月交易分享

My Bitcoin intraday short-selling plan for today
1. Current Market Overview
BTC contract current price 78,900 USDT, up 0.68% in 24 hours, intraday fluctuation range 78,176 — 80,579. Notably, BTC briefly broke above 80,000 early this morning, reaching a high of 80,579, then sharply pulled back about 1,679 USDT (approximately 2.1%), currently oscillating around 78,900. This "rise and fall" pattern indicates strong selling pressure above 80,000.
Market news to watch: BTC spot ETF has seen net inflows for 5 consecutive weeks, with a single-day inflow of $629 million on May 1, indicating continuous institutional investment. Michael Saylor’s Strategy company has been steadily buying BTC through STRC bonds. However, after the Federal Reserve rate decision, there was a $182 million liquidation (long positions account for $177 million), showing macro uncertainties remain.
2. Technical Signal Analysis
Signals supporting shorting
The rise and fall is the most direct trigger for this short. BTC today fell from the high of 80,579 to 78,900, a decline of about 2.1%. The pressure above 80,000 is clear — the price surged but was pushed back, indicating significant profit-taking and selling pressure in that zone, making further breakthroughs difficult in the short term.
The 15-minute chart has already broken below the MA20 (current price 78,939 < MA20 79,589), clearly signaling short-term weakness. Closing below the short-term moving average support indicates the bullish structure on the 15-minute chart has loosened.
The daily CCI is at 125.88, still in the overbought zone (top formation), suggesting the daily timeframe is slightly overheated. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing to the lowest level in nearly 30 days (5,753, compared to a maximum width of 13,032 over 30 days), a strong reversal signal — after narrowing, a directional breakout is highly likely. BTC just surged and then fell back; if the reversal is downward, it’s directly favorable for shorting.
The Fear & Greed Index has dropped from 47 to 40, indicating market sentiment is leaning toward fear, with short-term capital tending to withdraw.
Overall judgment: Rise and fall + breaking below the 15-minute MA20 + daily overbought + Bollinger Band narrowing and reversal signals provide clear technical basis for shorting. The pressure above 80,000 has been validated. However, the 15-minute chart is already in oversold territory (CCI = -142, RSI = 36), indicating a strong short-term rebound demand; the medium-term trend remains bullish; funding rates turning positive increase the cost of short positions. The shorting logic is clearer than yesterday (rise and fall confirmed resistance above), but entry timing should avoid short-term oversold rebounds.
3. Short Entry Strategy
Rebound Entry for Shorting
The 15-minute CCI = -142 and RSI = 36.62 are already in oversold territory, likely leading to a short-term rebound. Wait for the price to rebound to the 79,500 — 80,000 zone before entering short, which is a natural target after the rise and fall, also near the 15-minute MA20 (79,589). Entering again at this rebound zone can significantly reduce the risk of being shaken out by oversold rebounds.
Use limit orders to short, with entry prices set at 79,500 — 80,000 (near the 15-minute MA20, target zone after rebound). The position is for shorting (opening a short position). Leverage is recommended at 30x — 50x; avoid excessive leverage for counter-trend trades. Control position size to 5% — 10% of total funds, start with small positions for testing. Margin mode is recommended to be isolated (逐仓), to prevent risk from affecting the entire portfolio.
4. Take Profit and Stop Loss Settings
Stop Loss (must be strictly enforced)
Plan A (rebound entry): set stop loss at 80,600 — 80,800, based on the logic that breaking above today’s high of 80,579 and then failing the rebound indicates the upward momentum has weakened, and resistance has been overcome, allowing the bulls to regain control.
Stop loss range is about 1.5% — 2.5%, which at 50x leverage corresponds to a margin loss of 7.5% — 12.5%.
Take Profit
First target: around 78,200 — near today’s low of 78,176, the first support level after the rise and fall. There may be buying interest here (similar to the support effect of 0.1060 on DOGE yesterday). After reaching, close half the position to lock in profits.
Second target: around 77,700 — near the 4-hour MA30 (77,734), a core support for the medium-term trend. Falling below this indicates the 4-hour bullish arrangement is loosening, and the trend may turn, but it remains the strongest support line for bulls. Once reached, close all positions without greed.
Third target: around 76,800 — near the 4-hour MA120 (76,826), only reachable in extreme conditions, for reference only, not actively pursued.
Recommend partial profit-taking: close 50% of the position at the first target 78,200; close the remaining at the second target 77,700.
Risk warning: The above is a personal trading plan, not investment advice. The market carries risks; please evaluate and bear the risks yourself.