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Bitcoin has reached $80k! Why is it rising, and will it continue to go up? How to operate with ZEC now, let's take a quick look.
1. First, let's talk about why BTC is rising, look at the chart. Is MicroStrategy crazy? Usually, they buy only a few hundred million dollars worth of Bitcoin per week, but in the past month, they’ve been buying 1 billion or even 2.5 billion dollars weekly! What does this mean?
2. Currently, all Bitcoin ETFs hold only about 80k dollars, while MicroStrategy bought 5 billion in a month. Their monthly increase accounts for about 10% of all institutional holdings combined over three years. With such large funds continuously buying, the price obviously can’t fall. So, will they keep buying?
3. MicroStrategy’s current Bitcoin purchases are entirely funded by their STRC financing product, which has a dividend yield of 11.7%. They use ultra-high dividends to finance, borrowing to lend, betting that Bitcoin can keep rising indefinitely—extremely aggressive. If later they can’t pay the high dividends or continue financing, it would be bad...
4. MicroStrategy defaults, Bitcoin crashes. Of course, MicroStrategy can also sell Bitcoin to maintain cash flow, but selling might lead to worse outcomes. So, the recent popular financial product has indeed pushed up the coin price, making it hard to fall. But big problems could arise later, and that’s when Bitcoin’s bottom might form.
5. In the short term, Bitcoin’s resistance is around $80k, which is near the previous $79.5k. But MicroStrategy is going all-in, so the price might reach the next resistance around $83k. I am long-term low-leverage shorting, with 2x leverage to avoid liquidation. No product only goes up; it’s already risen for 40 days straight. Chasing longs and catching the dip is impossible. The only remaining strategy is to carefully short on rallies.
6. As for ZEC, yesterday we shorted at 410. It had a small breakout but now dropped back to 410. I decided to close most of the position at the original price, leaving a small part to re-enter around the more stable resistance at 460, to play it safe.
7. Our crude oil short position has been very good; it recently dropped 10%, reaching 98, and profits are substantial. When it rebounds, say around 106 or 110, I think it’s a good opportunity to add more, continuously arbitraging, steady and cautious, opening positions daily.