Super Week is Coming: Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions, Major Earnings Reports, and Geopolitical Developments Set the Tone for Q2 Economic Trends

Jiaozhu, Golden Finance

Summary

The financial markets are迎来 a super week, with five major central banks集中议息, key economic data releases, and tech giants announcing earnings. These economic data will directly影响 global economy and asset pricing in the second quarter.

After the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting concludes this week, several large tech companies will逐步发布 their earnings reports. The market普遍认为 that the so-called “super week” has arrived, and the data trends this week可能决定 the direction of global stock markets.

1. The Big Five Central Banks集中议息

1. Bank of Japan (April 28): No change in interest rates

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) held its third consecutive meeting to keep the target interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, in line with market expectations.

Japan’s actual economic growth forecast was lowered. For fiscal year 2026, it is 0.5%, down 0.5 percentage points from previous estimates; for fiscal year 2027, it is 0.7%, down 0.1 percentage points. Considering rising oil prices and物流停滞 that will push up prices, while also exerting downward pressure on the economy, the BOJ decided to hold off on raising interest rates.

BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo stated: “There is no immediate need to raise interest rates. If current supply shocks generate secondary ripple effects, then a rate hike may be necessary.”

Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, said that support for raising rates from three members was somewhat unexpected, and policy member Shunko Nakagawa also shifted to support a rate hike. In Japan, the impact of Middle East shocks has already begun to show in consumer confidence, which is concerning in itself, and this impact is expected to further transmit to prices. Meanwhile, the yen still faces depreciation pressure in financial markets. Overall, the BOJ has no choice but to maintain its hawkish stance. If tensions in the Middle East ease, the bank is expected to further raise rates around June to July.

2. Federal Reserve FOMC (April 29): Expect no change in interest rates

The Fed will hold its meeting on April 28-29, with markets widely expecting a third consecutive pause, keeping rates between 3.50% and 3.75%. CME FedWatch data indicates that the market has fully priced in the expectation of no rate change this month.

According to CME “Federal Reserve Watch” data, the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in April is 100%. The chance of a 25 basis point cut by June is 4.5%, with a 95.5% chance of rates remaining unchanged.

Barclays analysts stated in a report that, amid high inflation, the Fed is expected to keep the federal funds target rate unchanged at this week’s meeting, but there is still a possibility of rate cuts later this year. The analysts said: “In an environment of high uncertainty, the Fed tends to hold steady, supported by strong demand and still-high inflation, and policymakers have signaled less confidence in further rate cuts in the near term.” They added that if inflation falls as expected, the Fed is likely to gain enough confidence to start easing policy around September. “We still expect rate cuts this year.” According to LSEG data, the currency market is currently pricing in a 10 basis point rate cut by the Fed in 2026.

3. Bank of Canada (April 29): Expect no change in interest rates

TD Securities expects the Bank of Canada to keep the overnight rate at 2.25% in April, likely maintaining this level through the rest of 2026. They believe the Bank will adopt a more balanced but cautious tone, emphasizing two-way growth risks from rising oil prices and the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) renegotiation, while ignoring short-term inflation spikes.

TD strategist Andrew Kelvin noted: “We expect the Bank of Canada to hold rates at 2.25%, with the policy statement reflecting a cautious tone. Rising energy prices will lead the Bank to significantly raise inflation expectations in the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR), while revisions to core inflation and GDP will be more moderate. Importantly, we expect the Bank to point out the ‘two-way’ growth risks from oil prices and maintain its commitment to overlook short-term inflation impacts.”

“We still expect the Bank of Canada to remain on hold through the rest of 2026, especially given the recent unexpected decline in CPI. Recent rate hikes, particularly the rise in the Bank’s forward rate, should be viewed as transmission of expectations for Fed rate cuts rather than a change in outlook. The December rate is currently priced at 2.61%, and returning to pre-war levels may be a slow process, not a rapid adjustment driven by a single dovish data point or communication.”

4. Bank of England (April 30): Expect no change in interest rates

Market surveys suggest that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members are likely to vote 8-1 to keep the current 3.75% benchmark rate unchanged. Previously, in the March MPC meeting, the vote was unanimous 9-0 to keep rates steady. Given the high geopolitical uncertainty from the Middle East, most believe that maintaining a “wait-and-see” approach this week is prudent.

However, investors expect a rate hike later this year. The market has largely priced in a 25 basis point increase in July since April 24, and there is a small chance of a third hike before the end of the year, possibly in September. UK Prime Minister Andrew Bailey has warned that such hikes may be premature.

5. European Central Bank (April 30): Expect no change in interest rates

Rainer Guntermann, a rate strategist at Deutsche Bank, said in a report ahead of the ECB’s policy meeting this week that the ECB will continue to closely monitor high oil prices. Since the US has paused negotiations with Iran and the Strait situation remains tense, short-term oil prices are unlikely to fall significantly. “This will keep the ECB on alert, but it’s still too early to hike rates this week.”

2. Key Economic Data

1. US

April 28: Release of April Consumer Confidence Index by the Conference Board; April 30: Release of March Durable Goods Orders (initial), Fed’s April meeting decision, Q1 GDP annualized rate, and Conference Board Leading Index for March.

2. China

April 30: Release of China’s April official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI.

3. Europe

April 29: Release of March M3 money supply YoY; April 30: Release of Q1 GDP seasonally adjusted QoQ, April CPI YoY, March unemployment rate, and ECB interest rate decision.

4. Japan

April 28: Release of March unemployment rate; April 30: Release of March machine tool orders (final YoY), BOJ interest rate decision, March retail sales YoY, and March industrial output MoM preliminary.

3. Tech Giants Earnings

According to Huannan Yongchang Securities, five of the “Big Seven” US stocks—Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Apple—will release earnings this week. The current market narrative focuses on whether巨额资本支出 in AI has translated into corresponding revenue growth. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta’s 2026 capital expenditure guidance shows significant growth compared to last year, and the market will closely watch the progress of AI monetization. Despite the S&P 500 reaching new highs recently and 84% of companies reporting better-than-expected profits, market breadth has deteriorated, with most common stocks performing weakly.

Domestically, BYD, Foxconn, Cambrian, Sinopec, and China Merchants Bank will also announce their Q1 results successively.

4. Geopolitics

Iran and US delegations may hold a second round of talks in the coming days. Iran has conveyed to the US that it wants Trump to tone down threatening rhetoric, and has indicated that if the US adopts a more conciliatory stance, hardliners in Iran are more likely to support negotiations.

Iran will hold a nationwide large-scale parade at 3 pm on April 29 to showcase national strength.

Summary

In summary, this super week has明确 the short-term main theme of global financial markets: high interest rate environment will continue to dominate asset pricing.

Tech earnings and geopolitical risks will be the core drivers of subsequent market volatility, and investors should重点关注央行政策走向, AI profitability, geopolitical risks, oil price fluctuations, and other signals.