BTC Daily Chart: Support levels gradually rise from 6.2-6.5-7-7.5, with 7.5 shifting from resistance to strong support. Multiple re-tests have not broken below 7.5, confirming the retest, and the price is now oscillating at a high level. Overall upward momentum and buying demand are relatively weak. The key strong resistance above is at 8-8.5, an important dividing line.

But this is just a rebound, not the start of a new rally, which is very important and relates to the direction choice. The MA30 and MA120 are converging more and more, but that does not necessarily mean a golden cross will form; the focus is on whether MA30 shows a downward turning point.

BTC Weekly Chart: The MA30 indicator outside shows the highest point of the bull market, marked by a large downward shadow and a big bearish candle. The inside three candles represent consolidation (the third candle forming MA30 with the weekly close at the end of May). The key is that candles four to six inside are large downward weekly candles, forming MA30 with June. The weekly close at the end of 2025 is projected at 8.68. The death cross between MA30 and MA120 has already formed.
According to the bearish MA60 downward principle, this week’s close must be below 8.26, next week’s below 8.6, and the key is that the week after next’s close must be below 8.23 (on 5/24), and the week after that’s below 7.84 (on 5/31). From this, it can be inferred that the monthly close in May cannot be like the large bullish candle in April. MA60 is especially guiding operational decisions the further out it goes.
The outside MA90 closed at 5.84, the inside at 5.48, which is also the lowest weekly close in this wave of decline, with a pin-like pattern around 4.8.
The outside MA120 closed at 4.157, and two weeks later, the main upward wave of the weekly chart began, with a high point of 7.37 (2024.3.11), forming MA120 with the first weekly candle in July. Therefore, there isn’t much time left for a major market decline; the longer it drags, the smaller the downward space, making it difficult to exert a bear market deterrent effect.

BTC Monthly Chart: April closed with a short shadow and a large bullish candle, and May opened at 7.63, showing strong bullish momentum. So, the bullish trend at the start of May is expected to continue. FR is currently positive, but the All indicator is trending toward convergence, indicating the market is in consolidation, waiting to choose a new direction. The resistance level above is around 83,800. The rebound can be understood as a rally fueled by the large decline.

If this wave of decline completes, in the second half of the year, spot trading will mainly revolve around low buying below 5 and high selling above 7, but with significant fluctuations within this range until the bottom is laid out for the next bull market.