“The monthly line does not lift, I will never participate”: My trend trading survival rule

Can you believe it! Retail investors lose money, 90% die from the same action—seeing a daily line form a bullish candle, then rushing in. What’s the result? The next day opens lower, the third day breaks support, the fourth day curses the main force.
Actually, those who truly understand the direction don’t look at the daily line at all. They only watch a monthly indicator.
Old hands call it moving averages, experts call it trend lines, and those who can control their hands only recognize one signal: if the monthly line doesn’t lift, never participate.
The monthly line is the road paved by funds with money. If it doesn’t lift, it means big funds have no intention of entering the market. Today, I’ll break down five classic patterns of the monthly line lifting, showing when you can enter and when you should only watch. The monthly line gives the answer.
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​​​1. Monthly line rises from flat
​The monthly line moves flat for a long time, with candles oscillating around the moving average, the amplitude narrowing, and volume shrinking to very low levels. This is big funds building a bottom position.
​Main forces don’t want the price to rise too quickly, afraid they won’t get enough shares; they also don’t want the price to fall too deep, afraid others will scoop their bottom. They slowly absorb in a narrow range. At this stage, it’s okay to enter, but not to enter is also not a loss. When can you watch? When the monthly line first lifts the moving average, even if only slightly.
​​2. Monthly line lifts, volume shrinks, and pulls back
​The monthly moving average shifts from flat to slightly upward tilt, with an angle no more than 15 degrees. The price doesn’t immediately surge but pulls back with reduced volume, touching the monthly line again or even slightly breaking through it. This is the final shakeout.
​Many get cut out at this point, thinking “it broke support.” But the pattern of the monthly line hasn’t changed; it’s still lifting, and the moving average isn’t bent. This isn’t a decline; it’s the main force waiting for the last batch of impatient traders to leave. As long as the monthly line remains unbroken and lifted, it’s a ticket for holders to stay in.
​​3. Monthly line diverges, multiple formations take shape
​The three moving averages of the monthly line shift from convergence to divergence upward, with the short-term at the top, medium-term in the middle, and long-term at the bottom, forming a uniform opening. This confirms the trend.
​No need for high volume at this point; the price can slowly push higher. Because the chips are already locked in, selling pressure is light. Daily lines may show bearish candles or even several days of adjustment, but as long as you look back at the monthly line, the three moving averages are still in a bullish, diverging state, and the trend is intact. During the divergence stage, all daily fluctuations are noise.
​​4. Monthly line accelerates, divergence becomes too large
​The monthly line pulls away from the price, with candles breaking out of the moving average band, the angle suddenly becoming steep, and volume sharply increasing. This is the end of market sentiment.
​Main forces won’t build positions or add at this point. Entering now isn’t catching the tail; it’s helping others settle accounts. Accelerating monthly lines are a sign to exit, not to attack. The real buying point is just before it accelerates and lifts the line.
​​5. Monthly line dips, rebound doesn’t touch
​The monthly line shifts from rising to flat, then from flat to downward. The price occasionally rebounds but gets pushed back when touching the monthly line. This establishes a downtrend.
​Many mistake this for a “low point” or think “it will rise after falling too much.” But when the monthly line dips, it indicates big funds are reducing positions at each rebound high. The closer the rebound is to the monthly line, the more likely it is the start of the next decline. If the monthly line doesn’t lift, any bullish candle is fake.