#USSeeksStrategicBitcoinReserve

Escalation Risk of Tension in the Strait of Hormuz Triggers Oil to Turn Bullish Again
Focus on Crude Oil:
“Any US intervention in the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire,” said a senior Iranian official.
Seven major OPEC+ members confirm plans to increase production in June by 188,000 barrels per day.
************************************************************
Monday, May 4, 2026 — At the opening of this morning’s session, oil prices are seen moving with a bullish correction, driven by rising escalation risk of tension in the Strait of Hormuz following Trump’s Freedom Project plan. Meanwhile, confirmation of the OPEC+ production increase limits further price movement.
Ebrahim Azizi, head of the national security commission in the Iranian parliament, warned on Sunday that any US intervention in the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a violation of the ceasefire. The warning came after Trump’s announcement that on Monday morning the US would begin a “Freedom Project” to free ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, deploying 15,000 US military personnel, more than 100 land- and sea-based aircraft, as well as warships and drones.
Also from the Middle East, a tanker was reported to have been hit by an unknown projectile while passing at around 78 nautical miles north of Fujairah city in the United Arab Emirates, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said on Monday. The attack followed an assault on a bulk cargo ship by several small boats while passing to the north at around 11 nautical miles west of Sirik, Iran, on Sunday, UKMTO added.
At the same time, during a virtual meeting held on Sunday, seven major OPEC+ member countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—confirmed they will increase production by 188,000 bph in June, from additional voluntary production adjustments in April and November 2023. The decision suggests the producer alliance will continue to push ahead with production increases even after the UAE has exited, said an OPEC+ source.
Adding to price pressure, Basim Mohammed, Iraq’s deputy oil minister, said on Saturday that he is optimistic Iraq’s oil production and exports can return to normal levels within seven days after the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz ends. Mohammed said Iraq’s current production reaches 1.5 million bph, with about 200,000 bph exported via Ceyhan, while two tankers have been readied and two more are expected to arrive depending on security conditions in the strait.
From a technical perspective, oil prices may encounter the nearest resistance level at $104 per barrel. However, if negative catalysts emerge, prices could fall to the nearest support level at $99 per barrel.