Recently, I've seen a bunch of people discussing re-staking and shared security, basically "adding more layers of protection to the same security," and the compounded returns look quite attractive. But I always feel like the illusion is also stacking up: the underlying assets are being unlocked wave after wave, and the unlock calendar is being flipped through daily to scare people. When it really comes time to exit, liquidity and sentiment might be more honest than the models.

I personally trust data a bit more; intuition is too easily influenced by "everyone is doing it." When there's a large on-chain movement, I first look at the path and destination, at least to know where the money is flowing. I also won't rule out the possibility that I misjudged again... Anyway, keep the position small and treat it as paying tuition first.