#Gate广场五月交易分享 "International Precious Metals Market Watch": Gold prices under short-term pressure at the key support level of 4,500! Bank of America maintains a target price of $6,000, and the fundamentals of gold remain positive.

01 Long-term fundamentals of gold remain resilient despite impact from international oil price fluctuations
Middle East conflicts trigger a surge in oil prices, boosting inflation and delaying central bank rate cuts, short-term suppressing gold prices; but gold demand surged in the first quarter, physical buying remained strong, combined with high global debt and geopolitical risks, the long-term fundamentals remain solid, the bull market pattern unchanged, just with a more volatile upward path:
Oil price surge reignites inflation, central banks slow down monetary easing: expectations for rate cuts are postponed, rising oil prices restart inflation pressures, forcing central banks to slow monetary easing, delaying rate cut expectations, reducing the likelihood of rate hikes, overall policy becoming more cautious and watchful.
Physical gold demand increases significantly, Asian safe-haven buying remains strong: gold demand in the first quarter rose year-over-year, with robust investment and physical buying, Asian buyers active, supporting gold prices and stabilizing market bullish sentiment.
Institutions optimistic about a long-term bull market in gold, high debt and geopolitical risks support gold prices: high debt and geopolitical risks provide support, expecting gold prices to stay high, but upward movement limited by interest rate and macroeconomic resistance.
02 Wall Street and retail investors recover half of the market, traders focus on the possibility of US-Iran agreement and US April employment data for direction
Last week, gold fell nearly 2% amid hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and oil price shocks, but market sentiment has shown divergence, with half turning bullish. $4,500 is a key support level. In the short term, constrained by interest rates and inflation, but medium-term debt and de-dollarization logic remain unchanged, geopolitical risks still the biggest variable.
Gold weekly survey shows: half of Wall Street and retail investors believe gold prices may rebound next week, while one-third expect further declines:
Gold price trend and core suppression factors: spot gold closed last week at about $4,614, down nearly 2%. The pressure comes from hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve (diminished rate cut expectations) and soaring oil prices (inflation concerns, pushing up US Treasury yields).
Market sentiment shows divergence: latest survey indicates 50% of Wall Street analysts and 46% of retail investors are bullish on gold next week, with core logic — "a slight rebound after Fed-triggered gold sell-off" and "ongoing Middle East tensions."
$4,500 is a key technical level: analysts generally see $4,500 as the dividing line between bulls and bears next week. If broken, it could open the way down to $4,400; if held and rebounded, the target could be $4,650–$4,700.
Iran situation is the biggest variable: analysts believe the current ceasefire and potential agreement progress (such as Iran proposing new proposals) could bring "a glimmer of hope at the tunnel's end," and once the war ends, it will be favorable for risk assets and gold.
Medium-term driving logic remains unchanged, but short-term divergence signals: bullish investors believe the factors driving gold in 2025—high global debt, currency devaluation risks, and central bank gold purchases—still exist.
Bears see warning signs: when the dollar falls, gold fails to rise, indicating large-scale profit-taking is happening, and the medium-term outlook is turning red.
Key catalysts this week: the US April non-farm employment report released on Friday (May 9); Tuesday’s job openings, services sector, PMI data; and Wednesday’s employment data will jointly provide short-term trading guidance for gold prices.