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The short position's sky fell, Bitcoin strongly broke through the 80k level!

On May 4, 2026, the Bitcoin market finally experienced an important breakthrough after three months—price broke through the 80k-dollar mark, rising to a high of $80,594, hitting the highest intraday level since January 31. What exactly happened? Has the bull returned? Little Wealth God provides an urgent analysis.

Analysis of upward momentum

1. Geopolitical risk alleviation

Recent easing of tensions between the U.S. and Iran has become a key catalyst. Recently, both sides exchanged negotiation proposals frequently, and U.S. officials announced the end of the war (despite suspicions of avoiding the 60-day war authorization period from Congress), bringing new hope for peace to the Middle East, and Bitcoin recovered the declines caused by the war.

2. Capital inflow resurgence

Bitcoin spot ETF has achieved net capital inflow for the fifth consecutive week, with institutional investor confidence clearly restored. Data shows that BlackRock’s IBIT saw a single-day capital inflow of $471 million, managing total assets surpassing $54.5 billion, accounting for nearly 60% of the market share, forming strong buying support. Institutions like MicroStrategy continue to increase holdings, and Tesla has included Bitcoin in its treasury reserves, all reinforcing Bitcoin’s attribute as “digital gold.”

3. Shift in macro liquidity expectations

Although Brent crude oil remains high at $107, market expectations for a shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy have increased. Investors bet that falling energy prices might prompt central banks to release liquidity, boosting Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against currency devaluation.

4. Technical short covering

During Bitcoin’s consolidation below $78,000, a large number of short positions accumulated. When the price broke through the key resistance at $79,500, it triggered programmed buy orders, causing a short squeeze. On-chain data shows that net exchange outflows increased by 17% over the past 24 hours, indicating investors prefer to hold coins expecting a rise rather than taking profits.

Market analysis

Although Bitcoin successfully broke through $80k, the market is not entirely optimistic. From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, Bitcoin previously showed a long upper shadow on a bearish candle, indicating selling pressure remains heavy above. However, the price remains above the 5-day moving average, with all moving averages trending upward, suggesting buying momentum has not been exhausted. On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands are opening, and the price is oscillating near the middle band. Although the MACD fast and slow lines are showing a death cross above zero, RSI and Stochastics indicators are showing upward signs, hinting at a short-term upward push.

Looking at the current key resistance level, the next resistance is around 82,000, where a sell wall of 1.4 billion short orders is stacked, which can be seen as the last fortress for the bears. If this level is successfully broken and held, it could signal a complete reversal of the trend, with the next resistance at the 90,000 mark.

On the support side, the previous top-bottom conversion point at 79,400 is the first support. If this level breaks, further correction to around 76,000 is possible.

Future outlook—two extreme scenarios may occur

Regarding the future trend, two extreme situations may happen—May’s curse of sharp decline or a trend reversal ending the bear market. Yes, there is no option for sideways movement.

1. Optimistic scenario: If Bitcoin can hold above $80k in the first week of May and successfully break through the crucial 82,000 level, then from a weekly perspective, the price staying above the middle Bollinger Band indicates a trend reversal, and the bear market will be officially over.

2. Pessimistic scenario: If Bitcoin fails to hold the $80k level and even drops below the key support at $79,500, a correction to $70k is highly likely, indicating the bear market is not over yet. Even worse, the “May curse” in the crypto world might strike again. Historical data shows that Bitcoin often faces sharp declines in May during mid-term election years—61%, 65%, and 66% drops in 2014, 2018, and 2022 respectively. If this curse reappears, bulls may face another bloodbath.

Overall, today’s breakthrough of $80,000 is a significant turning point for the market. This breakthrough not only demonstrates Bitcoin’s resilience and potential but also reintroduces the shadow of the “May sell-off” curse. In the coming days, whether Bitcoin can hold above $80,000 will determine if it can break the historical curse and continue its rally or fall back into a correction. $BTC $ETH $LAB