Just came across this old economic cycle theory from Samuel Benner back in 1875, and honestly, it's fascinating how it still gets discussed in trading circles today. He basically mapped out a pattern for periods when to make money by dividing market history into three repeating phases.

The framework breaks down like this: there are panic years (roughly every 18-20 years) where financial crises hit and markets collapse – think 1927, 1945, 1981, 1999, 2019. These are the years you want to stay defensive and avoid panic selling. Then there are the boom periods when prices surge and it's actually smart to take profits and exit positions. We're supposedly in one of those right now in 2026, which tracks with what we've seen in markets lately.

The third phase is what really interests me though – the recession and decline years. This is when assets are cheap, prices are suppressed, and the economy is sluggish. Years like 2023, 2032, 2040 fit this pattern. If you can stomach the volatility and have dry powder, this is genuinely when you should be accumulating. Hold through until the next boom cycle arrives, then you exit at peak prices.

The whole thesis is basically: buy low during recessions, wait for boom periods, sell high, and avoid getting wrecked during panic years. It's cyclical, repeating roughly every couple of decades.

Now, important caveat – this is historical pattern recognition, not gospel. Real markets get bent out of shape by wars, tech breakthroughs, policy changes, geopolitical chaos. So while Benner's cycle gives you a useful mental framework for thinking about long-term periods when to make money, you can't just blindly follow dates on a chart. It's more about understanding the rhythm of booms and busts rather than timing exact entry and exit points. Still, pretty interesting lens for thinking about market cycles if you're playing the long game.