#Gate广场五月交易分享 US-Iran Negotiations: Talking but not breaking, geopolitical emotions repeatedly harvest the market

1. Latest core developments (May 2-5)
May 2: Iran submitted a 14-point peace plan to the US through Pakistan, with core demands including US military withdrawal, lifting all sanctions, returning frozen assets, and compensation for war damages, taking a firm stance.
Same day: Iran announced approval of the "Strait of Hormuz Management Law," banning Israeli ships from passing, hostile ships must pay war compensation, reigniting concerns over 20% of global oil and gas transportation routes.
May 3-4: The US explicitly rejected Iran’s proposal, threatened to restart military strikes, and negotiations completely stalled, with risk aversion in the Middle East soaring.
2. Core impacts on the crypto market (mixed positive and negative)
Short-term (1-3 days): Intense volatility, both bulls and bears expect negotiations to break the ice → risk sentiment improves, Bitcoin briefly surges to $78,500; deadlock + Strait situation escalation → safe-haven funds flee, over 130k traders liquidated within 24 hours, totaling $173 million.
Medium-term (1-4 weeks): Slightly bullish dominance, increased volatility, ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis, Iran may push for crypto settlement tolls, strengthening BTC’s “digital gold” attribute; but repeated negotiations + US strict regulation make a one-sided surge unlikely.
Long-term: Positive for de-dollarization, BTC’s value reassessment, US-Iran confrontation intensifies global doubts about US dollar hegemony, Iran and others accelerate cross-border crypto settlements, promoting BTC from “risk asset” to geopolitical hedge asset, with long-term bottoms continuously rising.