These days, I’ve seen people using the curve of stablecoin supply to justify "ETF off-chain funds coming in so it’s about to take off," and I find it a bit funny and a little alarming… Correlation can be very deceiving. Honestly, an increase in stablecoins might just mean everyone is waiting on the sidelines for an opportunity, or it could be exchanges preparing ammunition, or even old money moving around on-chain to stay warm, which doesn’t necessarily mean they will immediately buy spot and push the market up. When I take notes, I usually draw the paths of a few large wallets and find that many “incremental” movements eventually circle back, it’s not that straightforward.

Recently, after the cross-chain bridge was hacked and the oracle experienced abnormal quotes, the collective “waiting for confirmation” atmosphere has been quite obvious. Anyway, when market sentiment tightens, funds prefer to stay in stablecoins and play dead. My approach remains the same: when I see data, I first ask “whose, where from, where are they planning to go,” then decide whether to rush in or not, just like that.