UAE's withdrawal from OPEC shocks the power dynamics, and Saudi Arabia's dominant position faces a severe test

BlockBeats message, May 4, the United Arab Emirates announced its withdrawal from OPEC, taking away about 12% of output and spare capacity second only to Saudi Arabia, triggering dual concerns in the market over both supply and organizational stability. Against the backdrop of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and conflicts involving Iran, global crude oil supply was already under pressure, and this move further weakens OPEC+’s ability to regulate.

Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman has long relied on production capacity and his royal status to steer decision-making, receiving support from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. However, in recent years his decision-making style has become more centralized, shrinking the room for consultations among member countries and sparking dissatisfaction, including in the UAE.

Disputes between the UAE and Saudi Arabia over quota arrangements have continued for many years. Although Abu Dhabi once received a quota increase, the contradiction was not fundamentally resolved. UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei has previously publicly criticized the quota mechanism as “unfair” and pushed for an expansion plan.

Analysts believe that in the short term, given the impact of geopolitical conflicts, the UAE’s withdrawal will have limited impact on actual supply. However, once transportation and production resume, its expansion capacity that is not constrained by quotas will become a key variable. Coupled with weakening internal coordination mechanisms, there is significant uncertainty about OPEC+’s future stability and Saudi Arabia’s dominant position.