2026-5-4

If you don't spread anxiety, even during oscillations upward, there will be pullbacks; for short positions, reduce holdings during unsuitable pullbacks, slowly hold, and you'll eventually hold out.
An increase doesn't necessarily require optimistic expectations; weakening negative expectations can also lead prices to revert to the mean. Comparing with the NASDAQ, there is still room for a rebound, but FOMO is running high, and chasing the rally is definitely not advisable.
The farther the divergence is from the correct position, the lighter the position should be. Don't think about going all-in and dying, or just going all-in at low leverage and dying.
Missing the relatively bottom chips indicates you're easily swayed by others' opinions. It's unlikely that prices will continue to fall while the public sentiment remains optimistic and continues to look bullish (this only happens in the early stages of a decline, even viewing the decline as a good buying opportunity).
As long as the decline lasts more than 30 days, the sentiment will inevitably be pessimistic and negative.
At the current price, going all-in, once a 4-hour or daily correction occurs, the chance of not cutting your own position is very low.
Many mainstream coins are still in "stagnant inflation," such as AAVE, BNB, and SOL.
Whether criticized or not, they will eventually rebound.
Just like TAO, which dropped from 370x to 235 without looking back, that was actually a good buying opportunity.
TAO bought between 235 and 242 has gained 18% so far.
If you want to pick a coin that will definitely rebound, choose BNB.
Buy on pullbacks and wait for the rebound.
Currently, Bitcoin looks more like a pullback rather than the start of a correction.
The key is to observe whether a new "bottom" can be formed around 795-793.
If it can consolidate above 793, the probability of a further upward breakout past 810 increases.
Mid-term shorts should be taken before major positive news lands, when market sentiment is at its peak, or when volume surges near key levels.
For example, when the 4-hour accelerates to 829-840 and RSI is overbought, then on the 5-minute chart, if it breaks below the overbought level and closes bearish, you can try a light short position.
If you’re too lazy to watch this, wait for a 1-hour volume surge, and when a double top or secondary top appears, set a stop-loss at the previous high and try a short.
Before conditions are met, it’s better to watch more and act less.
Missing the move won't make you lose money, and selling prematurely won't either.
The market always rises amid doubt and ends in celebration.