Recently, I’ve been reading a bunch of reports on “tags + clustering + fund flows,” and they talk as if they’ve opened a whole new eye into everything—but I’ve been full of questions in my own mind: address profiling is at most a probability problem. If you see a certain address moving back and forth between a CEX/multisig/bridges, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s “smart money.” It could just be someone like me writing scripts to test nonces and tweak the bundling order, and as a side effect, make the path look really convoluted… Put simply, on-chain behavior can be explained, but it’s hard to categorize it definitively.

Over on Layer2, the recent arguments over TPS/fees/subsidies are also pretty similar. With the same set of data, you can debate it for an entire day if you change the framing. My “long-term” view is roughly quarterly: within a three-month period, whether the behavior of the same type of addresses can still be reproduced, and whether the capital is continuously rotating, matter more than a sudden influx in a single week. Anyway, for now I treat tags only as leads, not as conclusions. If I truly want to follow the thread, I’ll first break down the transaction construction and the route to the on-chain outcome before saying anything.