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Just came across this fascinating historical perspective on periods when to make money. There's this old theory from Samuel Benner back in 1875 where he tried to map out economic cycles – basically predicting when markets would boom, when they'd face panic, and when recessions would hit.
The way he broke it down is pretty interesting. He identified three distinct periods that repeat roughly every 18-20 years or so. First, there are the panic years – these are the dangerous times when financial crises hit and markets collapse. Think 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019. His theory suggests 2035 and 2053 could follow the same pattern. During these years, you'd want to be extremely careful and definitely avoid panic selling.
Then you've got the boom years – the periods when to make money by actually selling. Markets recover, prices surge significantly, and it's the ideal time to take profits. Looking at his list, years like 1928, 1935, 1943, 1953, 1960, 1968, 1980, 1989, 1996, 2000, 2007, 2016, 2020 fit this pattern. Interestingly, 2026 and 2034 are also marked as potential boom years in this cycle.
The third category is recession and decline years – when prices are depressed and the economy slows down. This is actually when savvy investors traditionally buy. 1924, 1931, 1942, 1951, 1958, 1969, 1978, 1985, 1996, 2005, 2012, 2023, 2032, 2040, 2050, 2059 fall into this bracket. We literally just came out of 2023, which was marked as one of these buying opportunities.
So the basic strategy from Benner's perspective is straightforward: accumulate during recessions when everything's cheap, hold your position, then sell when boom years arrive and prices peak. Skip the panic years entirely – don't be a forced seller when chaos hits the market.
Obviously, this is historical pattern analysis, not gospel. Real markets get shaped by countless variables – geopolitics, technological breakthroughs, wars, policy shifts, you name it. But as a long-term framework for understanding market cycles and periods when to make money? It's worth keeping in mind. Especially when you're trying to avoid the emotional mistakes that most traders make during volatile periods.