Middle East Situation Brief | May 4

The US-Iran negotiations have entered their tenth week. Trump has characterized Iran’s 14-point plan as “unacceptable” while launching the “Freedom Plan” to guide ships trapped in the Strait of Hormuz, and has proposed escorting for the first time. Israel has issued a “gag order” to ministers, preparing to restart hostilities on both Iran and Gaza fronts. Airstrikes and counterattacks continue along the Lebanon-Israel border, while a larger energy corridor game heats up in the Red Sea — Houthi forces have completed preparations to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Iranian lawmakers have even quoted a maximum toll of $5 million for passage.

I. US-Iran Negotiations: 14-Point “Ball in US Court,” Trump Proposes Escort

Iran’s 14-point plan revealed, demanding an end to war within 30 days

On May 2, local time, Iran submitted its latest 14-point negotiation plan through Pakistan, acting as a mediator, setting a 30-day deadline for negotiations, requiring all issues to be resolved within this period. The main contents include: ensuring no further military aggression, US troops withdrawing from Iran’s surrounding areas, lifting maritime blockades, unfreezing Iranian assets, paying compensation, lifting sanctions, achieving peace on all fronts (including Lebanon), and establishing a new management mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz.

Regarding core concerns, Iran explicitly demands that the war end under the premise that the US and Israel guarantee “no further attacks,” with Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz and the US lifting the blockade. On nuclear issues, Iran’s parliament previously passed legislation removing all key uranium enrichment clauses from this year’s budget, effectively ending uranium enrichment and nuclear bomb development plans. Regarding Syria and Lebanon, Iran has promised not to attack Syria and no longer seeks to obstruct efforts in Lebanon. All previously set conditions have been gradually abandoned during negotiations.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagheri stated that the US has responded to Iran’s “14-point proposal” through Pakistan, and Iran is “reviewing it,” with current negotiations not involving nuclear issues. Both sides will resolve nuclear concerns through technical negotiations after the first-phase agreement. Bagheri also clarified that reports about Iran’s promise to conduct mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz are purely media fabrication, and Iran does not accept negotiations under ultimatums or imposed deadlines.

Notably, Gulf media have begun to send new signals: according to Al Arabiya TV citing sources, Iran has proposed to limit uranium enrichment to 3.5% and gradually reduce its uranium stockpile in exchange for the US lifting maritime sanctions. Analysts suggest this indicates a substantive softening of Tehran’s stance on nuclear issues.

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi explicitly stated in Tehran that ending the war is the US’s responsibility, “the ball is in the US court.” Senior officials from Iran’s armed forces, including the Central Command, also expressed a tough stance, stating that the armed forces are fully prepared for any “adventurous actions” by the US.

Trump’s stance shifts from “completely unacceptable” to “discretionary handling”

Within two days, Trump’s statements shifted subtly from “firmly rejecting” to “discretionary handling.” On May 2, Trump tweeted that he would soon review Iran’s latest proposal but “cannot imagine” it being “acceptable,” and hinted that “the US may restart airstrikes on Iran.” That evening, in a phone interview with Israeli media, he directly said, “This is unacceptable to me. I’ve looked into it — it’s unacceptable.”

By May 3, Trump softened his tone, saying that the US and Iran are engaged in “productive dialogue,” and that they are studying the details of Iran’s proposal, with “hope for positive results.”

A bigger move came on May 3, when Trump announced that the US would launch an operation in the Middle East on the morning of May 4 to guide ships trapped in the Strait of Hormuz to leave, calling it a “humanitarian gesture,” warning that “any interference by any forces in any way will be met with a strong response.” The White House and US military simultaneously launched a “public relations campaign.” The US Central Command announced it would deploy missile destroyers, over 100 aircraft, and 15k troops to support the “Freedom Plan,” aiming to restore commercial shipping freedom in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s firm response: no mine clearance, no acceptance of ultimatums

Iran quickly responded to the US’s pre-announcement: Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagheri reiterated that the US’s “formal written response” to Iran’s 14-point plan remains unclear, and Iran is only “reviewing” it at this stage. Additionally, Bagheri had to deny false reports that Iran promised to conduct mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz, calling it “pure media fabrication,” and emphasized that Iran will not accept the rules of the game under ultimatums.

II. Strait of Hormuz: US Military High-Profile Escort, Iran’s Super-Large Oil Tanker Breaks Through Blockade

The military power game over energy transport routes is escalating.

Trump promotes “Freedom Plan” with high-profile escort

On May 3, Trump announced that on the morning of May 4, the US would launch a naval and air escort operation in the Strait of Hormuz to guide trapped ships out — calling it a “humanitarian gesture,” but later warning that “any interference will be met with a strong response.” Trump tweeted that multiple countries had requested US assistance to ensure their ships’ safe passage, describing this as a humanitarian effort, emphasizing that these ships are “neutral and innocent bystanders.”

According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump instructed that the escort operation does not involve direct US military escort but is a coordination mechanism involving governments, insurance companies, and shipping organizations. The US Central Command immediately announced that from the morning of May 4, it would deploy missile destroyers, over 100 aircraft and drones, and 15k troops to support this “Freedom Plan.” CENTCOM Commander Cooper stated that while supporting this “defensive mission,” the US would continue to maintain the maritime blockade against Iran.

Iran’s super-large oil tanker successfully breaks through the blockade

Public data shows that despite the US’s claim of a comprehensive blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, at least one confirmed super-large oil tanker has broken through: an Iranian National Oil Tanker Company VLCC carrying over 1.9 million barrels of crude oil (worth nearly $220 million). After 13 days of turning off AIS and continuously changing course, it successfully crossed the Lombok Strait en route to the Riau Islands in Indonesia — the most notable recent case of a “breakthrough” since the blockade began.

April’s overall shipping statistics are even more startling: according to Bright Communications on the evening of April 3, 25 oil tankers left Iran in April, with 7 returning due to blockade, 2 being seized, and most of the remaining 15 having already arrived at their destination ports in the first half of the month — revealing significant loopholes in the US blockade.

Meanwhile, Iran’s parliament is pushing the “Hormuz Strait Management Law,” which includes: a permanent ban on Israeli ships passing through; collecting “war reparations” from “hostile” countries’ ships; and requiring all other ships to obtain direct authorization from Iran to pass. A statement indicates Iran will not compromise on this waterway.

III. Israel: Minister’s “Gag Order” Takes Effect, Preparing for Dual Fronts

US escort “imminent,” “Gag Order” targets ministers

As Trump launches the escort plan, Israel has issued a strict “gag order” to its ministers — forbidding senior officials from freely speaking on sensitive issues related to potential military actions on Iran and Gaza. Israel believes Hamas has not complied with disarmament agreements and is in talks with mediators to resolve the Gaza ceasefire, with military leaders considering the possibility of a ground offensive in Gaza.

IDF Chief of Staff Zamir and CENTCOM Commander Cooper have spoken by phone to coordinate for “possible scenarios.” The IDF has recently received large amounts of military equipment, and preparations for multi-front conflict are underway.

On the Lebanon-Israel front, the IDF launched airstrikes in southern Lebanon on May 2, destroying over 70 Hezbollah military facilities, and on May 3, issued emergency evacuation orders for 11 villages in southern Lebanon, signaling determination to continue fighting. In Gaza, Israeli newspapers on May 3 revealed that Hamas has formally rejected the phased disarmament plan proposed by the US-led “Peace Committee,” effectively refusing to disarm.

IV. Lebanon-Israel Conflict: One Day of Airstrikes, 13 Dead, IDF Orders Evacuations

Cycle of attacks and counterattacks accelerates, death toll exceeds 2,600

Even with a ceasefire agreement, Israel continues ground and air operations to prevent Hezbollah from regaining strength. On May 2, Israel launched heavy airstrikes on southern Lebanon’s Nabaytiyeh, Sidon, and Tira, killing at least 13. The same day, Israel claimed to have destroyed about 70 Hezbollah facilities and 50 positions.

Hezbollah responded with rocket and FPV drone attacks targeting Israeli forces. Hezbollah drones have caused high concern in recent days, especially because their operational mode makes traditional interception difficult.

Latest Lebanese health data shows that since the renewed conflict on March 2, Israeli attacks have caused 2,659 deaths and 8,183 injuries in Lebanon. On May 3, Israel issued new evacuation orders for 11 villages in southern Lebanon, warning civilians to evacuate at least 1 km away — seen as a sign that Israeli ground offensives may escalate further.

Iranian diplomacy also involved in Lebanon ceasefire efforts

According to AFP on May 3, Iran’s Foreign Ministry is maintaining contact with Lebanon to ensure all parties adhere to ceasefire commitments. Lebanon’s Foreign Ministry has also called on the international community and the UN Security Council to intervene and stop Israel’s escalating military strikes.

V. Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb Strait: Houthi Forces Ready to Block, Toll Up to $5 Million

Beyond the main battlegrounds of US and Iran, confrontations in the Red Sea are also heating up. With Iranian support, Houthi forces have reportedly completed preparations to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait: an Iranian parliament member disclosed that Houthis have conducted recent exercises to finalize the blockade.

More critically, Houthi forces are exploring a “toll mechanism,” with eye-catching prices — international ships may pay about $5 million per vessel for passage permission, or be forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, incurring at least an additional $30 million. An Iranian legislator publicly commented on social media: “This will ultimately create two choices for global shipping finances — either pay $5 million per ship or spend over $30 million more rerouting.”

This arrangement is widely interpreted as Iran and Houthi forces institutionalizing a maritime blockade — turning military deterrence into a fixed cash flow, while seeking some political “legitimacy” for their resistance axis in this waterway. If implemented, both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb could be controlled simultaneously by Iran and its proxies.

VI. Gaza: Hamas Agreement De Facto Dead, Both Sides Accuse Each Other of Violating Ceasefire

On May 1, Hamas issued a statement accusing Israel of violating the Gaza ceasefire for over 200 days — continuing military operations under cover of the ceasefire, with Rafah border crossing mostly closed or only symbolically open, and a humanitarian crisis worsened by “hunger policies.” Hamas called for international intervention to stop Israeli violations.

Israel, in turn, blames Hamas for refusing to disarm, preventing the second phase of negotiations to exchange hostages. The US-led “Peace Committee” proposed phased disarmament and political resolution, but Hamas rejected it, insisting that the final outcome must be linked to Palestinian independence. Analysts warn that Israel’s ground offensive in Gaza “is no longer impossible.”

VII. International Reactions and Macro Impact: China-Russia Veto Iran-Related Resolutions, “Ten Countries” Call for Lebanon-Israel Ceasefire

Multipolar diplomacy takes shape, major powers’ rivalry intensifies

China officially assumed the UN Security Council presidency in May. China emphasizes the Middle East issues (Israel-Palestine, Lebanon, Syria) as key priorities, with Ambassador Fu Cong stating the Security Council will “closely monitor developments, promote all parties to remain calm and restrained, and work toward an early ceasefire.”

Within the Western camp, cracks have appeared: France recently opposed military solutions on Iran alongside China and Russia; Germany and other countries also diverge from US positions on Iran.

“Ten Countries” joint statement condemns Israeli military actions

Meanwhile, 11 countries including Turkey, Brazil, and Pakistan issued a joint statement condemning recent Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon, calling for an immediate ceasefire.

Oil prices remain high, mid-term concerns grow

WTI crude futures hover around $100/barrel, Brent remains between $106-110. Global think tanks generally worry that continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with disruptions in the Red Sea, could cause global economic growth to plummet below 2.5% in the second half of the year, with inflation and poverty rising rapidly.

Summary: On May 4, the US and Iran continue their tug-of-war over the “14-point plan,” with Trump dismissing it as “unacceptable” and simultaneously preparing for “maritime escort.” The US has fully launched the “Freedom Plan,” deploying 15k troops and over 100 aircraft to guide ships in the Strait of Hormuz, with US intervention becoming more concrete. Iran’s armed forces are on high alert. Israel quietly issued a “gag order” to its ministers, preparing for renewed conflict on both Iran and Gaza fronts. The game in the Red Sea is also intensifying — Iran and Houthi forces threaten to turn the two major waterways into “fee-based” routes. Multiple powers’ actions have pushed the Middle East into a high-stakes game of “no retreat, no big move.”