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Just been thinking about something that doesn't get enough attention in crypto circles - the work of Samuel Benner from way back in 1875. This guy published 'Periods to Make Money' and laid out these market cycles that honestly still hold up today. Kind of wild when you think about it.
So here's how Benner broke it down. You've got three distinct phases that keep repeating. First, there's the panic years - those chaotic periods where everyone's losing their minds, buying and selling irrationally, prices swinging wildly in both directions. Then you get the good times, which Benner called the high price years. This is when you should be selling, not buying. That's the key insight most people miss. When everything's pumping and sentiment's euphoric, that's your exit window.
The third phase is the hard times - the years when prices are depressed and most people are scared. Benner said this is when you should be accumulating, buying assets, stocking up. Hold through that rough period and wait for the cycle to turn back to good times, then unload.
What's interesting is looking at where we are now through this Benner cycle lens. We've moved through the hard times, we're in this transitional recovery phase, and if the pattern holds, we're heading into something different. The market's been showing signs of this shift - you can look back at the past few years and see how the events actually line up with these cyclical movements.
Altseason fitting into this framework makes a lot of sense when you step back and think about it. This isn't financial advice obviously, but for anyone still sitting on the sidelines unprepared, this might be worth paying attention to. The Benner cycle suggests we're at an interesting inflection point, and understanding these patterns could change how you approach positioning your portfolio. Personally, this is exactly the kind of framework I've been using to guide decisions, and it's been working well.