U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent claims the U.S. is "strangling" Iran's economy, and Iran is no longer able to pay military wages, with the oil industry possibly forced to shut down within a week. Iran's oil storage space is said to have only about a one-month window remaining. Tehran, on the other hand, states: "We have the technology, we're not afraid."

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. is applying economic and financial pressure to "squeeze" Iran, implying that Tehran's ruling regime will ultimately be forced to yield.

Bessent stated on Sunday during Fox News Channel's "Sunday Morning Futures" program that the U.S. has been running a marathon over the past 12 months and is now sprinting toward the finish line. He pointed out that Iran is unable to pay military wages, describing it as a true economic blockade.

Against the backdrop of a pause in joint U.S.-Israel airstrikes, Bessent's remarks reflect the Trump administration's efforts to further pressure Iran through various means, including maritime blockades, to cut off its oil exports and deprive Tehran of its main revenue source.

Bessent said the U.S. believes Iran's oil industry may need to start shutting down wells "within the next week" because the country's crude oil storage capacity is "filling up rapidly."

He noted that Iran's oil infrastructure has already begun to show cracks, and due to decades of U.S. sanctions, related facilities have not been properly maintained.

Bessent also mentioned that no ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz from Iran's side anymore. He said the U.S. has increased efforts to pressure any attempts to transfer funds to Iran in support of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

He pointed out that compared to Iran's previous oil revenues, the tolls that the country can now collect from ships passing through the strait are "insignificant."

According to a previous report by Bloomberg News, a senior Iranian official said Iran has begun limiting oil production, proactively reducing crude output to stay within storage limits rather than waiting until tanks are fully filled and then being forced to halt production.

U.S. President Trump hinted on Saturday that Iran's latest proposal was still insufficient to reach an agreement. The U.S. side stated that any agreement must include the termination of Iran's nuclear program. Iran has consistently denied seeking nuclear weapons.

Iran is balancing between production cuts and storage pressure to resist U.S. sanctions.

Iranian officials say they have the capacity to cope with this turbulence for a period but also admit that efforts to maintain oil production can only be temporary. The question is whether Iran can endure economic pain longer than the U.S.—which also faces pressure from high oil prices.

However, the U.S. may have underestimated a key factor: Iran has been preparing for such scenarios for decades.

Iran has shown resilience in responding to blockades so far, relying on a set of tested strategies to prolong the standoff and increase the costs for the U.S. by pushing up oil prices.

Officials say that after years of sanctions and multiple shocks to Iran's oil industry, engineers have learned how to idle wells without causing permanent damage and can quickly restart production.

Hamid Hosseini, spokesperson for Iran's Oil, Gas, and Petrochemical Products Exporters Association, said Iran has enough technology and experience and is not worried about this.

Of course, there are key differences between the past and present. During Western sanctions, Iran used its large fleet of oil tankers and a shadow fleet network operated by unknown companies outside international regulation to secretly sell oil. Now, this is no longer possible because the U.S. is implementing a physical blockade around the Strait of Hormuz, trapping tens of millions of barrels of crude at sea.

Brett Erickson, head of risk advisory firm Obsidian Risk Advisors, said Washington is operating under the assumption that Iran will sit and wait, endure pressure, and follow an expected trajectory toward collapse. But this fundamentally misreads the regime's behavior under ongoing economic warfare. They will not surrender but will adapt.

There is no precise consensus yet on how long this strategy can last before Iran reaches the so-called "tank top"—the point at which storage space is exhausted and wells must be shut down.

Trump predicted that Iran's oil infrastructure would be full within three days, but that deadline has long passed. Officials familiar with Iran's energy policy say that at current production levels, Iran has only about a one-month window before its storage capacity is exhausted. JPMorgan Chase and data analytics firm Kpler have reached similar conclusions.

Since the U.S. blockade took effect on April 13, Iran has increasingly turned to floating storage at sea. More and more oil tankers are gathering near its main export hub, Kharg Island.

According to Kpler, last week, 18 tankers that had loaded Iranian crude were in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, with a total capacity of up to 35 million barrels of oil. Satellite imagery reviewed by Bloomberg shows ships still loading on Saturday, although the number of ships doing so has decreased in recent days.

The inventory backlog reflects a sharp decline in oil flowing out of the Persian Gulf. Since the blockade, observable loading volumes have decreased, though these data can be difficult to interpret and often have delays.

Bessent posted on X that Kharg Island is nearing full capacity. He said this reality will cause Iran to lose $170 million daily and push it back to the negotiating table.

If storage space is fully filled, Iran will have no choice but to reduce output to match its inability to export. Based on pre-war domestic consumption of about 2 million barrels per day, this would operate the oil fields at roughly half their potential. Hosseini said another alternative is transporting oil via land routes to Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan, with a capacity of 250k to 300k barrels per day. But more creative options, including rail transport, may become increasingly difficult.

The country still has considerable tanker capacity inside and outside the blockade—equivalent to about 37 supertankers. According to Vortexa, Iran's total floating storage capacity is between 65 million and 75 million barrels, most of which is occupied by dark tankers operating within the Persian Gulf.

Claire Jungman, Vortexa's head of maritime risk and intelligence, said this capacity can buy time, but how much depends on the enforcement of the U.S. blockade. She pointed out that Iran's oil export infrastructure is ultimately built around flexibility. By utilizing floating storage, ship-to-ship transfers, and aging tankers, Iran has multiple means to sustain oil flow. She added that the ability to cycle ships back into the Persian Gulf for reloading will be crucial. This will be a limited but operational system, not a complete shutdown.