Recently, I came across a bunch of "smart money address profiles," with tags and clustering, and adding a flow of funds arrow makes it seem like you can see through the market... I'm now a bit skeptical: this stuff can be trusted, but only halfway. To put it simply, there are indeed traces on the chain, but people also change aliases, split addresses, and use intermediaries, so if you're just looking at a "whale" label, it might actually be a group of people carpooling.

My mom asked me yesterday: Aren't you all transparent and open? Why do you still get caught? I could only reply half-heartedly: the ledger is transparent, but the motives are not... And recently, miners/validators' income, MEV, and fair ordering have been heavily criticized by retail investors. When you see the same flow of funds, it might just be "queue-jumping" making it look like chasing highs and selling lows.

Anyway, I now use profiles only as a reference, not as faith; when I see "funds inflow," I first ask myself: am I just looking for a reason to sell again? For now, restraint is more difficult than being smart.