May 4 Market Analysis

Key Level Analysis

Resistance Levels (Shorting Defense / Entry Reference)

First Resistance Level: 79,000 - 79,500

Reason: This is near the recent high point shown on the chart (79,489.9). The price has attempted to break through this level multiple times without success, forming a clear "double top" or "box top" structure. Near this level, trapped and profit-taking orders tend to sell, making it the core defensive line for bears.

Second Resistance Level: 80,000 (Psychological Barrier)

Reason: If the price strongly breaks above the previous high, the 80,000 round number usually creates significant psychological pressure and selling pressure.

Support Levels (Profit-Taking Reference)

First Support Level: 77,000 - 77,200

Reason: From the chart, the MA20 (blue line, about 78,122, but with previous low points below) and a small previous platform bottom are near 77,000. If the price pulls back, there will be initial buying support here.

Second Support Level: 75,000 - 76,000

Reason: This is a deeper level of box bottom support. If the price breaks below 77,000, it is likely to test this range.

Shorting Strategy Suggestions

Based on the current price of 78,387.6 and RSI indicators (RSI6: 50.31, in a neutral to slightly strong zone, indicating the trend has not fully weakened), it is not recommended to chase short positions at the current price, as the moving averages are in a bullish alignment (MA5 > MA10 > MA20), and the trend still leans upward.

Recommended short entry points:

Aggressive Short Entry (Left-side Trading):

Entry Point: Around 78,800 - 79,000

Logic: Bet that the price cannot effectively break the previous high of 79,489. Enter near the high to set up a position.

Stop Loss: Set at 79,600 (stop if the price breaks above the previous high).

Take Profit: First target at 78,000, second target at 77,200.

Conservative Short Entry (Right-side Trading - Recommended):

Entry Point: Wait for the price to rally and then fall back, or enter after a 4-hour candle closes below MA20 (about 78,100) and confirms a rebound.

Logic: Currently, RSI remains above 50, indicating bulls still have strength. Waiting for a clear break below short-term support and trend weakening confirmation is safer.

Stop Loss: 78,600 (exit if the price reclaims above the moving average).

Take Profit: Target between 76,500 and 77,000.

Risk Warning

RSI Indicator: Currently, RSI6 is at 50.31, not in overbought territory (above 70), indicating upward momentum is not exhausted. Shorting directly may be hit by short-term upward spikes and stop-loss triggers.

News Factors: The chart shows "Michael Saylor: No buys this week," which is a short-term bearish signal, but the market may have already priced in this reaction. Be alert for sudden positive news that could cause a price spike.

Summary: The best shorting opportunities are when the price fails to test around 79,000 again or clearly breaks below 78,100 support. The current price of 78,387 is in the middle, with a risk-reward ratio that is not ideal. Patience is recommended.