BTC 15-minute surge of 1.23%: Institutional ETF funds flow significantly increased, combined with on-chain withdrawal activity driving short-term price rise

On May 4, 2026, from 01:45 to 02:00 (UTC), BTC experienced a rapid upward movement within 15 minutes, with a return of +1.23%, a price range of 78,793.8 to 79,863.0 USDT, and an amplitude of 1.36%. Market volatility significantly increased, with buying pressure concentrated and released.

The main driver of this anomaly was a resonance between a large influx of institutional ETF funds and large on-chain withdrawal activities. Data shows that BTC spot ETF fund inflows reached statistical extremes, with institutional buying pressure being released; at the same time, on-chain data indicates large net outflows of $1M–$10M range reaching -2,193.62 BTC, as institutions and high-net-worth investors continued to withdraw coins to cold wallets, reducing spot selling pressure and tightening liquidity to support price increases.

Additionally, the buy-sell imbalance indicator in the spot market broke through the upper statistical range, with buying strength significantly enhanced; open interest in futures and perpetual contracts continued to rise, indicating a return of speculative funds to the market. However, short-term profit realization rates among holders are high, and some investors are inclined to take profits, creating localized selling pressure, but this is fully absorbed by institutional buying. Implied volatility remains at a historical high, and the options market’s expectations for future price fluctuations have increased, amplifying the probability of short-term anomalies.

Currently, BTC has broken through the previous high resistance zone, remaining in a bullish pattern in the short term, but caution is advised regarding potential pullbacks caused by profit-taking after the rally. Future focus should be on the sustainability of ETF fund flows, changes in on-chain exchange net flows, and the performance of the 80,000 psychological resistance level.