Gold: First, the direction of the US-Iran situation, dominating the short-term safe-haven demand and the medium- to long-term interest rate cut expectations; second, the performance of US economic data, which directly determines the actual room for the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments.

The ongoing US-Iran tensions continue to disturb the market, requiring close attention to subsequent negotiations; this week, a dense release of US economic data will have a key impact on gold prices: on Tuesday, the ISM Services PMI will be announced, focusing on signals of a softening service sector; on Wednesday, the ADP employment data will provide a forward-looking guide for Friday’s April non-farm payroll report, which is a core decisive variable for gold price movements in the first half of this month.

These data will directly influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts this year: if the employment market cools and economic data weaken, the rising expectation of rate cuts will benefit gold prices; if the data remains relatively strong, the Fed’s pause cycle will lengthen, and upward resistance for gold prices will significantly increase.

From a technical perspective, last Friday’s gold price failed to hold above the key level of 4650, opening this week with a slight pullback, currently testing the 4600 level. The daily chart has not closed with consecutive bullish candles, and a strong trend has not been established, with a weak risk of testing support at 4550; to move further upward, a break above 4650 is needed, which could then test the 4720 resistance level. The H4 candlestick remains above the middle Bollinger band, with no clear dominance of bulls or bears.

At the beginning of this week, gold prices are likely to remain within a range, focusing on resistance at 4650 and 4720, and support at 4550 and 4500. Monday and Tuesday will mainly operate within the range, with attention shifting to data-driven trading from Wednesday onward, and Friday’s non-farm payroll report will set the trend. #美国寻求战略比特币储备