$BTC 📊 May 4th BTC Latest Strategy Analysis

BTC:
After rebounding from around 78,027, the price has now broken below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands on the 15-minute chart, indicating short-term bearish momentum is dominant. The Bollinger Bands are contracting and turning downward, with the price continuously falling under the middle band, which is at 78,756.9, while the lower band is at 78,184.1, forming a step-like resistance and support. The MACD indicators show DIF at -54.6, DEA at -40.6, and MACD at -28.0, with the green bars steadily enlarging, indicating increasing bearish momentum. Volume is mildly increasing during the pullback, with selling pressure dominating the short-term market.
📉 Bearish Logic:
The strong resistance zone above 78,700-78,900 is within the intraday range. When the price rebounds into this area, it faces double resistance from the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and the previous decline platform, making a rebound unlikely to change the overall weak downward trend. If the price cannot effectively break above 78,900, the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, the subsequent trend is likely to continue downward, with the first target at 78,200. If broken, the price could test the 77,800-77,600 range, and in extreme cases, test the previous low at 77,600.
⚠️ Risk Reminder:
If the price re-breaks above the upper Bollinger Band at 79,329, and MACD shows a bullish divergence with volume continuing to increase, the bearish trend could quickly reverse. Caution is advised for a rebound into the 79,500-79,800 range, and strict stop-loss measures should be set to avoid trend reversal risks.
🎯 Main Strategy: Slightly Bearish
• Short Entry Zone: 79,000-79,200
• First Target: 78,200
• Second Target: 77,800
• Stop-Loss Level: 79,500