Monday Morning Bitcoin Outlook

From the 4-hour structure, this rebound has gradually entered its final phase, and a short-term bearish outlook is more reasonable.

The current price keeps oscillating above 78,000, but it’s clear that around 79,000 there have been multiple tests that failed to effectively hold above it. This is a typical pattern of a high push with waning strength. In terms of candlestick formation, at high levels there are continuous small-bodied closes, with the number of upper and lower shadows increasing, indicating that disagreement between bulls and bears is intensifying and bullish momentum is weakening.

Looking at the structure again, the earlier rally started from around 74,800 and the move upward is more of a sentiment correction. But during the rise, the trading volume did not continue to expand; instead, it was more of a choppy rise with the center of gravity lifted, not a strong trend push higher. Once this type of move loses support, it can easily turn back into a pullback.

Key resistance levels above are around 78,800–79,200, which is a dense prior-high area. Support is at 77,500, followed by 76,000.

In terms of strategy, it’s not advisable to chase longs in the short term. If the rebound reaches around 78,800, you can consider setting up short positions in batches. Place the stop-loss above 79,500. The first target is to watch whether 77,500 breaks down; then look toward the 76,500–76,000 area.

Overall, the rhythm is: after high-level consolidation and building up strength, the market is more inclined toward a second pullback. In terms of execution, the main approach is to short in line with the trend, and avoid being repeatedly shaken out at high levels.
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