The current market is in a range-bound consolidation structure, with prices moving within the Bollinger Bands channel, combined with key pivot points (R1/S1/S2/S3) for long-short battles. There is no clear short-term trend; based on Bollinger Band volatility, ATR dynamic fluctuations, and pivot resistance/support resonance, it is more likely that the price will face resistance and pull back at high levels, with a higher probability of continuation downward after breaking through. The overall strategy is a dual-mode short position: confirm breakouts and resistance levels while executing a range-bound short strategy, using technical structure and indicator resonance as core signals, strictly controlling risk, and taking light positions to profit from range trading.

Aggressive entry (78,800-79,000): stop loss at 79,430 (above the 24-hour intraday high), with a stop loss range of 0.8%-1.3%, within a reasonable ATR multiple of 1-1.5 times;

Conservative entry (after breaking 77,950): stop loss at 78,500 (above the middle Bollinger Band), with a stop loss of about 0.7%, aligned with the middle band trend suppression logic, offering higher risk control tolerance.

First target: 77,400 (S2 support + MA120 moving average resonance), corresponding to a return of 1.8%-2.5%. Reduce 50% of the position upon reaching this level;

Second target: 76,800 (S3 key support level), corresponding to a return of 2.7%-3.5%. Exit all remaining positions;

Extreme extension target: if the price effectively breaks below S3, it could drop to 76,000, but further position reduction and strict trailing stops are required, avoiding blindly chasing short positions.