#Gate广场五月交易分享 Bitcoin stabilizes at $78k! Is the bull market really back?

Recently, the crypto market has been completely boiling over, with Bitcoin surging strongly all the way up, successfully holding above $78k, getting closer and closer to its all-time high. Is the bull market finally returning? What supports this rally? Are the high price predictions by institutions reliable? Today, we’ll thoroughly explain Bitcoin’s current market, the logic behind its rise, and its future trend in one go!

1. Market confirmation: Bitcoin has fully emerged from the correction haze
As of May 4, 2026, Bitcoin’s price remains stable around $78,500, maintaining above $78k for three consecutive trading days, even quickly recovering from short-term dips, demonstrating a very strong bullish trend.
Looking back at previous movements, Bitcoin corrected from its October 2025 high, once dropping to $60,000, with bearish sentiment widespread; but after April 2026, the trend completely reversed, with moving averages fully bullish, breaking through key resistance levels, officially signaling the start of a new upward cycle.
Is this a temporary rebound or a full return of the bull market? The answer is clear: the bull market has returned, but it’s not the retail frenzy of 2021, rather a steady, slow bull led by institutions!

2. Who is driving this rally?
Bitcoin’s recent stabilization above $78,000 is not just hype, but the result of resonance among four core factors. These four factors are well-known, so I won’t elaborate here!

3. The truth about the bull market: it’s completely different from the 2021 frenzy! Although both are bull markets, the current rally and the 2021’s explosive rise and fall are fundamentally different. Investors must distinguish:
✅ 2021 frenzy: retail + leverage speculation, DeFi and NFT bubbles rampant, market surges and crashes, a full bull-bear cycle in one year, extremely risky;
✅ 2026 slow bull: institutional compliant funds dominate, longer holding cycles, more stable capital, steady market gains, smaller volatility, significantly extended bull cycle, representing a more sustainable rally. Simply put: previously driven by speculative funds, now driven by asset allocation needs—these are fundamentally different underlying logics.

4. Future trend forecast: Are institutional target prices reliable? Predictions of Bitcoin reaching $150k, $500k, or $1 million are everywhere—are they just random talk or based on solid reasoning?
1. Top Wall Street financial institutions (most authoritative) — here I only list mainstream price forecasts, all from top Wall Street firms (Standard Chartered, Bernstein, JPMorgan, etc.), based on on-chain data models and historical cycle patterns, not guesswork:
Standard Chartered: target of $150k by end of 2026, $225k by 2027, and a long-term goal of $500k by 2030 (regularly updated reports with clear reasons for adjustments);
Bernstein: $150k by end of 2026, $200k by end of 2027, focusing on the trend of crypto asset compliance;
JPMorgan: $170k in 6-12 months, estimated from macro liquidity and institutional allocation perspectives;
Galaxy Digital, a16z: top crypto industry investment banks, targeting $300,000–$500k by 2030, focusing on long-term industry development.
2. What are the reliable bases?
Supply and demand logic: Scarcity post-halving is irreversible, institutional holdings continue to grow, long-term supply-demand imbalance persists;
Historical cycle patterns: Bitcoin tends to reach a bull market peak 18-24 months after each halving, with the 2024 halving leading to peaks around 2026-2027;
Institutional allocation trend: Pensions and sovereign funds are gradually entering, Bitcoin shifting from speculative asset to mainstream portfolio asset, with valuation systems being reconstructed.

5. Important reminders: Under the slow bull, avoid these pitfalls
Avoid blindly chasing highs: Slow bull markets don’t rise straight up; 20-30% pullbacks at high levels are normal, and buying on dips is more prudent;
Stay away from leverage speculation: Institutional market volatility is relatively controllable, but leverage amplifies risks—don’t gamble recklessly;
Rationally view forecasts: institutional target prices are trend indicators, not absolute figures—don’t blindly trust them;
Strict risk control: Cryptocurrency is highly volatile; never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Finally, Bitcoin stabilizing at $78,000 marks the official start of the institutional slow bull. This is an inevitable result of the industry moving toward mainstream and compliant development. The market won’t rise in a straight line; oscillations and corrections are unavoidable. However, the long-term upward logic is now clear. For investors, understanding the essence of the bull market, grasping core logic, and strictly managing risks are key to standing firm in this cycle.

Risk warning: This article is only an analysis of market trends and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry high risks; invest cautiously, rationally, and bear your own profits and losses.