Technical analysis—honestly, I think it’s a skill that beginners should learn seriously. If you look at the chart and can’t read anything from it, that’s one of the biggest reasons you lose in trading.

A question I’m often asked is, “Which indicator should I start with?” The conclusion is that the right approach is to narrow it down to three: 相対力指数 (RSI), 移動平均収束発散 (MACD), and moving averages. These three are easy for beginners to understand, and they’re tools that actually work.

First, let’s talk about 相対力指数 (RSI). It’s called the Relative Strength Index, and basically it’s an indicator that tells you whether something is overbought or oversold. On a scale from 0 to 100, above 70 means overbought (it might soon drop), below 30 means oversold (there’s a possibility it could rise), and around 50 suggests the trend may continue neutrally. The default setting is 14 periods, and you don’t need to change it. However, the important thing is not to use RSI by itself. Its reliability improves when you combine it with support and resistance (サポート・レジスタンス) and candlestick patterns (ローソク足パターン). During strong trends, the RSI can stay at 70 or above or at 30 or below for a long time—so don’t rush.

MACD is 移動平均収束発散 (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), but put simply, it’s a tool for spotting turning points in a trend. It examines the relationship between the 12-period and 26-period exponential moving averages (指数平滑移動平均), and makes buy and sell decisions based on crossovers with the 9本の信号線 (9-period signal line). When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it’s a buy signal; when it crosses below, it’s a sell signal. Here’s what to watch out for: in super-short timeframes like 1分足 (1-minute candles) or 5分足 (5-minute candles), there are too many false signals. At minimum, use the 1時間足 (1-hour chart); ideally use the 4時間足 (4-hour chart) or 日足 (daily chart). When you observe the MACD and histogram, you may see divergence (ダイバージェンス) from the price. This becomes a strong warning sign of a potential reversal.

As for moving averages, there are two main types: シンプルな移動平均（SMA）(Simple Moving Average) and 指数平滑移動平均（EMA）(Exponential Moving Average). SMA assigns equal weight to all data, so it’s suitable for understanding long-term trends. On the other hand, EMA places more weight on recent prices, so it reacts faster and is better for short-term trading. If you’re a beginner, a basic approach is to look at SMA50 for the mid-term trend and SMA200 for the long-term trend, then use EMA9 or 20 to look for short-term entry and exit signals. If the 50MA crosses above the 200MA (ゴールデンクロス), that’s bullish; if it crosses below (デスクロス), that’s bearish.

Let me introduce a practical strategy that combines these three. For a buy setup: look for the price to be above the 50MA to confirm the trend, ensure RSI is below 70 so it’s not in an overbought state, and wait for the timing when MACD makes an upward crossover. Enter when the price pulls back near the moving average (MA). Set your stop-loss just below the most recent low, and for taking profit, use a risk-reward ratio of 2:1 as a guideline. For a sell setup, the logic is the same: price below the 50MA, RSI above 30, and wait for a downward MACD crossover before entering.

A common question is, “Which should I start with?” The rule is to narrow it down to one or two indicators, master them completely, and then add more. It’s important not to trade blindly, but instead to have the indicators support what you’ve confirmed with your own eyes on the chart. Since indicators aren’t foolproof, you must always incorporate risk management. Before moving real funds, it’s recommended to practice thoroughly with a demo account (デモアカウント).