Key Events and Data Forecast This Week - US Non-Farm Payroll, China's Trade Balance; Trump Threatens to Raise Tariffs on EU Cars

On May 4, the key events and data forecast for this week are as follows: 1. Monday: ① Data: Final manufacturing PMI for France, Germany, and the Eurozone for April; US factory orders month-on-month for March. ② Holidays: Markets closed in Japan, the UK, Hong Kong, and mainland China. ③ Trump threatens to impose a 25% tariff on EU cars exported to the US this week. 2. Tuesday: ① Data: Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision for May; Switzerland’s CPI for April; US trade balance for March, final S&P Global services and composite PMI for April, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, March JOLTs job openings, annualized new home sales. ② Events: Federal Reserve’s Williams speaks; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers attend parliamentary hearings; Reserve Bank of Australia announces interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, Chair Lowe holds a press conference; Saudi Aramco announces official crude oil prices around the 5th of each month. ③ Holidays: Markets closed in South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, and mainland China. ④ Earnings reports: Pfizer, AMD. 3. Wednesday: ① Data: US API and EIA weekly oil reports, April ADP; China’s RatingDog services PMI for April; final services PMI for the UK, France, Germany, and the Eurozone for April; Eurozone PPI for March. ② Events: Federal Reserve’s Musalem speaks on economic outlook and monetary policy; central bank conducts a 300 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a three-month term. ③ Holidays: Markets closed in Japan. ④ Earnings reports: Walt Disney, ARM. 4. Thursday: ① Data: US Challenger job cuts for April, initial jobless claims, March construction spending month-on-month, EIA natural gas inventory, New York Fed one-year inflation expectations, China’s foreign exchange reserves for April. ② Events: Federal Reserve’s Goolsbee participates in a panel discussion at a conference. 5. Friday: ① Data: Germany’s seasonally adjusted industrial production month-on-month for March, trade balance; Switzerland’s consumer confidence index for April; Canada’s employment numbers for April; US non-farm payroll report for April; preliminary one-year inflation expectations, University of Michigan consumer confidence index, March wholesale sales month-on-month. ② Events: Federal Reserve’s Hamrick and Williams speak; domestic refined oil prices will enter a new adjustment window. 6. Saturday: ① Data: China’s trade balance for April. ② Events: Federal Reserve’s Goolsbee and Daly attend a panel discussion at the Hoover Institution’s 2026 monetary policy conference; Putin will deliver an important speech at the Victory Day parade. (Jin Shi)