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Currently, crude oil is facing downward pressure for a correction, and the main logic is as follows:
1. Rebound of geopolitical risk premium: Negotiation prospects between the United States and Iran are changing, expectations of passing the Strait of Hormuz are increasing, and previous tensions that drove up the "risk premium" are quickly fading.
2. Easing supply expectations: OPEC+ plans to slightly increase production in June, along with the potential withdrawal of the UAE from the production cut alliance, easing concerns about supply shortages.
3. Demand and financing pressure: Rising oil prices hinder end consumption, and the International Energy Agency has lowered demand forecasts; at the same time, previous profit-taking by speculators, and a technical correction is needed.
Weakness in the macro picture and sentiment: The strength of the dollar is pressuring commodity valuations, along with expectations of a slowdown in global economic growth, which dampens market risk appetite and limits upside speculators. Currently, technical indicators show divergence at the top, and short-term correction pressure is evident#K??