From Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action Analysis of BTC Short-term Trends

$BTC ‌1. Dow Theory
Daily level: From the low of 66,888 on early April to the high of 79,468 on April 22, Bitcoin is in a clear main upward trend. The secondary correction from April 22 to April 29 (79,492 → 74,938) was completely broken through on 05-01 by a large-volume bullish candle, closing at 78,179 on 05-01, fully recovering the lost ground.
Current state: The daily candle on 05-03 continues to close higher (78,977), and intraday made a new high of 79,428, just 40 points below the previous high of 79,468. On the hourly level, the main upward trend per Dow Theory has fully resumed and accelerated—low points keep rising (78,034 → 78,093 → 78,416 → 78,656), and high points also keep rising (78,417 → 78,392 → 78,588 → 78,829 → 78,873 → 79,428). The current price of 78,977 is testing the previous high of 79,468, which is a critical point for bulls and bears. A volume breakout above this confirms the main upward trend entering a new phase, targeting 80,000+; if it encounters resistance and pulls back, it may form a high-level consolidation between 78,500 and 79,000.

2. Chan Theory
From the Chan perspective, the current phase is in an upward wave, and this wave has entered the main rally stage.
Pattern and strokes: The bottom pattern at 17:00 on 05-01 at 78,125 started an upward wave, followed by the top pattern at 22:00 on 05-01 at 78,417 being digested by the bottom pattern at 05:00 on 05-02 at 78,034 (a higher low). The top pattern at 09:00 on 05-02 at 78,392 was digested by the bottom pattern at 11:00 on 05-02 at 78,093, and the top at 16:00 on 05-02 at 78,588 was digested by the bottom at 20:00 on 05-02 at 78,416. The top at 12:00 on 05-03 at 78,873 was digested by the bottom at 21:00 on 05-03 at 78,656. This wave from 78,656 upward has already reached 79,428.
Central zone: After 05-01, a new upward central zone was formed between 78,034 and 78,417 (Central Zone 8), then broke upward. On 05-02, a smaller central zone was formed between 78,093 and 78,392 (Central Zones 9/10). On 05-03, a central zone at 78,416–78,588 (Central Zone 11) was formed, and the current price has moved out of this zone upward, belonging to the departure segment. According to Chan logic, after leaving a zone, one must observe for divergence. Although 79,428 made a new high, a long upper shadow appeared at 23:00 on 05-03, indicating slight exhaustion, and a risk of top divergence should be watched.

3. Wave Theory
After the ABC correction, the new impulsive wave structure 1-2-3 is clearly emerging, with subwaves inside wave 3:

Wave A: 77,899 → 74,938, down about 2,961 points

Wave C end = new wave 1 start: 74,938

Wave 1: 74,938 → 78,417, up about 3,479 points

Wave 2: 78,417 → 78,034, retracing about 383 points (only 11.0% of wave 1, very shallow retracement)

Wave 3: 78,034 → 79,428 (current), up about 1,394 points
Subwaves inside wave 3:

Wave③①: 78,034 → 78,873

Wave③②: 78,873 → 78,656 (shallow correction, only 217 points)

Wave③③: 78,656 → 79,428 (current), up 772 points
Current judgment: Wave③③ is ongoing. According to wave theory, wave 3 is usually 1.618–2.618 times wave 1. Wave 1 length is 3,479 points, so wave 3 targets:

1.618 times: 78,034 + 1.618 × 3,479 = 80,567

2.0 times: 78,034 + 2.0 × 3,479 = 82,992
Wave 3 has already risen 1,394 points, about 1,140 points away from the 1.618 target of 80,567. If wave ③③ can break through the previous high of 79,468, wave ⑤ may aim for 80,500–81,000.

4. Volume-Price Relationship
On 05-03, volume and price showed early morning consolidation with decreasing volume + strong push at the end of the day.
From 00:00 to 12:00 on 05-03, trading volume was low (generally below 200 million), with price fluctuating narrowly between 78,500 and 78,800, typical of wave 2 of wave 3 consolidation—bulls locking in positions, bears waiting. After 13:00, volume gradually increased, especially between 22:00 and 23:00, with two huge bullish candles (1.07B + 1.5B), indicating wave 3③'s initiation with active buying surging into the key resistance at 79,400.
However, although 79,428 was made at 23:00, with volume reaching 1.5B (the largest intraday), the candle had a long upper shadow (open 78,829, high 79,428, close 78,977), indicating strong selling pressure at high levels. This is an initial volume-price divergence signal—new high in price but close far from the high, showing bulls lack strength above 79,400.
The VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) is at 77,138, while the current price of 78,977 is significantly above VWAP, indicating recent holders are generally in profit. But the 79,400–79,500 zone is a dense area of previous trapped positions; if volume cannot sustain expansion, a short-term top may form here.

5. Order Flow
Order flow indicator improved continuously on 05-03 but showed divergence at the end of the day.
In the morning of 05-03, Delta fluctuated slightly; after 13:00, Delta remained positive, especially reaching a daily peak at 22:00, with active buy orders consuming sell orders, directly fueling wave 3③'s breakout above 79,000. But at 23:00, although Delta was still positive, the value narrowed significantly, and a long upper shadow appeared, indicating selling pressure at high levels.
The cumulative Delta curve rebounded from -6 billion on 05-02 to around -3 billion now, showing a clear upward trend but not yet turning positive. If wave 3③ continues, cumulative Delta may turn positive; if the long upper shadow at 23:00 is confirmed as a short-term top, cumulative Delta might fall again. The current order flow environment is a fierce battle between bulls and bears, with bulls still holding an advantage but waning.

6. Price Action
The recent 24-hour price action shows classic wave 2 consolidation with decreasing volume + wave 3 breakout with increasing volume + long upper shadow at high levels.
From 00:00 to 12:00 on 05-03, prices fluctuated narrowly between 78,500 and 78,800, with small candles and Bollinger Band width narrowing to 0.003 (extremely low), indicating an imminent volatility shift. After 13:00, prices started climbing slowly; between 18:00 and 20:00, a slight pullback to 78,656 occurred but did not break below the 50% retracement of wave 1's low at 78,873, forming a healthy correction.
At 22:00, a bullish candle broke above the Bollinger upper band, with volume expanding, a clear signal of wave 3③'s start. At 23:00, prices surged to 79,428 but closed with a long upper shadow, and RSI(14) reached 78, entering overbought territory. The Bollinger Band width expanded from 0.003 to 0.008, confirming volatility expansion, but the long upper shadow hints at potential short-term momentum exhaustion.

Short-term comprehensive judgment
Key levels:

Strong support: 78,656 (wave 2 low), 78,416 (former resistance turned support), 78,034 (wave 2 low)

First resistance: 79,428 (intraday high), 79,468 (historical previous high)

Second resistance: 80,000 (psychological level), 80,567 (wave 1.618 target)

Strong resistance: 82,992 (wave 2.0 target)

Scenario projections:
Bullish scenario (higher probability): After a brief pause, wave 3③ volume-breaks above 79,468, targeting 80,000–80,567. This signals the full development of the 1-2-3 wave structure, with subsequent wave 4 retracement and wave 5 surge. Breaking 79,468 will also trigger short covering, pushing prices higher.
Neutral scenario: Price consolidates between 78,600 and 79,400, forming a new central zone, waiting for a directional move. This could last 12–24 hours, with limited retracement depth (not below 78,400).
Bearish scenario (lower probability): Price falls below 78,656 with volume expansion, failing wave 3③ and reverting to wave 2 or even wave 2 zone. Strict stop-loss below 78,400 is necessary. If the long upper shadow at 23:00 is confirmed by subsequent candles, a short-term top is likely formed.
Current judgment: The ABC correction has ended, and the new impulsive wave 1-2-3 is very clearly unfolding. On 05-03, wave 3③ surged strongly to 79,428, just shy of the previous high of 79,468. But the long upper shadow, overbought RSI, and volume-price divergence at high levels warn against chasing highs in the short term. The Chan central zone departure, wave 3, rising lows per Dow Theory, and positive Delta signals all resonate, but the fading momentum at the close warrants caution.