Recently, I saw a bunch of people hard-connecting ETF capital flows and U.S. stock market risk appetite to explain "cryptos should rise/fall," which sounds quite lively, but I'm still more concerned about: who is actually paying for these on-chain returns.

LST/re-staking, frankly, the main sources of yield are twofold: one is the basic staking plus inflation and tips, and the other is the "selling your security again" for subsidies/incentives. The problem lies there: the latter often doesn't grow out of thin air; it's project tokens issued, protocol subsidies, or the introduction of more complex leverage and liquidation chains. The "extra" you get often corresponds to longer redemption queues, more opaque contract risks, and a full correlation if something goes wrong in one part.

Yesterday, after setting alerts/limits for several positions, I actually relaxed a bit... I used to want to watch constantly, afraid of missing out, and the more I watched, the more I wanted to act. Now, the rules are fixed: sell at the set price, do nothing if not reached. Anyway, I trust discipline more than my fleeting intuition in the moment.