Recently, I came across a few more blockchain gaming pools, and just looking at the output curve makes me want to laugh: a few days ago, the “sugar” was being thrown around like it was free, and everyone rushed in. Then inflation crushed the token price—what was left in the pool wasn’t players, but “liquidity” that was effectively waiting for the other side to cut first. Plainly speaking, output ≠ profit. Output only packages tomorrow’s sell pressure and ships it to today.

In the past, I would still fantasize about “playing my way back to breakeven,” but now I’m more disciplined: first, check whether the daily increase in token issuance can be truly consumed (not funded by new greenhorns coming in), and then look at liquidation hotspots and the contract funding rate to see whether they’re hinting that a bunch of people are squeezing in the same direction. If there’s no consumption, don’t talk about an economic closed loop. Anything that relies on explanations people mouth off about tends to be pretty short-lived.

By the way, this wave of AI Agent automatic interactions is also pretty interesting. A lot of people are busy hyping up “intelligent strategies,” while the ones who truly focus on security are quiet: contract permissions, authorization lists, scripts being targeted by traps… these are the kinds of things that can empty your pool overnight. Anyway, I’d rather make a little less than be the one paying for both inflation and security pitfalls with my own money.