Bitcoin is moving up again and everyone is getting excited. But before you start clicking the buy button, it's worth considering what’s really happening here.

Several things are behind the rise at once. First, geopolitics — Iran and the US are negotiating a halt to nuclear activities. The US wants 20 years, Iran proposes 5 years, so nothing is settled yet. But markets are already reacting to the mere anticipation. The second thing is X, which has started hinting that it might build something for cryptocurrencies. You know how it works — first comes the hype, then comes reality.

But here’s something important. The price is now close to 79K and everyone is wondering whether to buy. My advice? Not now. Especially since news about geopolitical tensions is still on the horizon and things can change literally overnight.

What I’m observing is a liquidity cluster between 78K and 80K. We might reach there, but that doesn’t mean the end of the rise. Quite the opposite. After touching this zone, I expect a long-term downward trend toward 40K to 58K. The levels around 74K, which were discussed earlier, have already changed.

For now, this movement looks more like a short-term reaction and hype rather than a solid trend. Be patient. Don’t chase the market. It’s better to wait until it comes to you on its own.