I just reviewed the latest inflation data from the US, and I have to admit, we're dealing with an interesting situation. The CPI in March increased by 0.9% month-over-month—that's the biggest jump since 2022. Year-over-year, inflation accelerated to 3.3%, which is the fastest pace since 2024. This fundamentally changes the narrative we've had over the past few months.

Interestingly, almost the entire story is told by one element: gasoline. The rise in fuel prices accounted for about 75% of the overall CPI increase. It's no coincidence—geopolitical tensions in Iran have heavily impacted the global energy supply, and we feel it at the gas station. The domino effect is clear here.

But wait, there's something important to notice. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, slowed to just 0.2% month-over-month. This suggests that price pressures are still mainly concentrated in the energy sector. Broader inflationary pressures have not yet solidified in the economy, which is key to understanding the full picture.

From a market perspective, this gives us mixed signals. On one hand, strong CPI inflation could reinforce the Fed's stance on maintaining higher interest rates for longer. This would be bullish for the dollar and bond yields. On the other hand, if core inflation remains under control, the increase could be temporary—especially if oil prices stabilize.

Now, everything really depends on whether these energy pressures spill over into the broader economy. Markets will be watching wage trends, the trajectory of core inflation, and what happens to oil prices. If energy markets calm down, we might see a temporary spike. If not, inflation could stay elevated. For now, the macro environment remains full of uncertainty, and everything is increasingly linked to developments in the geopolitical situation. It's worth monitoring these data closely in the coming weeks.