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May 4th Gold Morning Analysis
I. Core Influencing Factors
1. Middle East Geopolitics
Israel-Palestine ceasefire negotiations, Red Sea shipping risks easing, market risk aversion sentiment fully receding, no geopolitical bullish support, gold prices lose safe-haven momentum.
2. US Dollar & US Bonds
Federal Reserve hawkish statements, expectations of interest rate cuts pushed back further this year, prolonged high interest rate cycle; US bond yields high, dollar index rebounds, increasing gold holding costs, under significant pressure.
3. Capital Flows & Central Banks
Gold ETFs are being reduced, bullish funds are flowing out; central banks' long-term gold purchases can only prevent deep declines, cannot reverse the trend in the short term, market driven by interest rates and the dollar.
II. Technical Analysis
• Daily Chart: Closed with a bearish candle, broke below consolidation platform, moving averages turning downward, medium-term turning to sideways bearish; MACD shows weak recovery, RSI not oversold, still room for decline below.
• 4-Hour Chart: Low-level sideways consolidation indicating a correction within a downtrend, Bollinger Bands opening downward, moving averages converging and under pressure, rebound indicators are technical corrections, not reversal signals.
III. Trading Strategy
Short in batches at 4630-4650, stop loss at 4665, target 4600-4580-4560#黄金