BTC 15-minute short-term rally of 0.54%: ETF capital inflows combined with on-chain holding confidence boost driving the rebound

Between 22:00 and 22:15 (UTC) on May 3, 2026, the BTC price saw a +0.54% return fluctuation. The price range was 78,833.8 to 79,368.8 USDT, with an amplitude of 0.68%. Trading volume in this period increased significantly, the order book structure between buy and sell sides showed a clear skew, and market attention warmed up rapidly.

The main driver behind this fluctuation was the spot ETF fund inflow turning positive. Data shows that in early May 2026, US spot ETFs recorded approximately $4.5 million in net inflows, ending the prior streak of continuous net outflows. This provided direct structural support for the BTC price and significantly strengthened market confidence.

At the same time, multiple factors converged. On-chain data indicates that exchange net flow was -1,753.70 BTC, and net outflows in the 1M-10M USD range reached -1,548.13 BTC. Large holders continued transferring BTC to self-custody wallets, substantially reducing the amount of BTC available on exchanges for selling, directly compressing the short-term selling pressure space. Coinbase order book data shows that during this window, the buy-side share was about 66%, and frequent active large buy orders (>50 BTC) appeared. This active capital entry pushed the price up in the short term. In addition, Polymarket’s prediction market shows that the probability of BTC fluctuating within the $78,000–$80,000 range is 100%, indicating highly consistent market expectations and limited room for volatility.

In terms of risk warnings, the market is currently in a volatility-compression state. If ETF fund inflows slow down or policy expectations change, it may trigger concentrated sell pressure. Going forward, key focus should be on ETF fund flows, changes in on-chain exchange balances, and regulatory policy developments to watch for the risk of increased short-term volatility.