I just noticed a pretty interesting phenomenon in the crypto market recently. Every time there is a major token unlock event, the price experiences unpredictable fluctuations. Today I want to share some observations on how token unlocks affect the market.

Token unlock simply refers to the process of releasing locked (vested) tokens into circulation. Initially, projects lock tokens to control supply and prevent early investors from dumping for quick profits. These tokens usually belong to the development team, venture investors, advisors, or ecosystem funds.

Why is this important? When a large amount of tokens are unlocked, it changes the supply and demand dynamics. If the holders sell, the selling pressure can be significant. Market psychology also plays a key role – investors often sell before the unlock occurs out of fear of dumping.

Looking at TRUMP coin in April is a clear example. On April 18th, when 40 million TRUMP tokens were unlocked (accounting for 20% of circulation), the price fluctuated sharply from $7.77 to $8.63. But afterward, the price recovered strongly, especially on April 24th when positive news caused the price to rise over 60%. APT is different – its three unlocks follow a similar pattern: price rises before unlock, peaks right at the moment of unlocking, then dumps afterward. However, the third unlock was interrupted by a sharp Bitcoin decline.

There are three main factors influencing price reactions during token unlocks: the amount of tokens unlocked relative to total circulating supply, market sentiment at that time, and most importantly, who will receive the tokens. If they go to the team or early investors (those with large profits), the likelihood of profit-taking sales is high. Conversely, if allocated to the community, reactions can be more positive.

To avoid surprises, I recommend tracking the unlock schedule in advance. Some reputable tools include Tokenomist (user-friendly interface, detailed unlock phases), DeFiLlama (a dashboard aggregating projects with upcoming vesting schedules), or following the projects directly on X, Discord, Medium.

But don’t assume all token unlocks cause prices to drop. Careful analysis is needed: who will receive the tokens, their motivation to sell, and any accompanying news. Combining token unlock tracking with technical analysis and market news will help you make smarter decisions. Currently, TRUMP is around $2.34 and APT near $0.99; you can monitor how the next unlocks might impact prices.