Lately, I've been feeling a bit itchy again, and whenever I see a rally in the candlestick chart, I want to chase after it, especially when everyone is talking about expectations of interest rate cuts, the U.S. dollar index, and the explanation that risk assets are moving together up and down, it's easier to find reasons for myself. But I realize that what really makes my position bigger is often not information, but emotions: fear of missing out, fear of falling behind, fear that "this time is different."

So now I will first pause for ten minutes and ask a very simple question: What verifiable new information have I added? If I’m just repeating macro anecdotes, then I’m basically using narrative as a sense of security. To put it plainly, information will cause you to update your model, while emotions will only cause you to press buttons differently. Remember this “itch,” and after a while, when you look again, it usually doesn’t seem as much like an opportunity.