#Gate广场五月交易分享 After the Bitcoin halving, the supply and demand landscape is being reshaped. Is institutional capital now in control?

1. Core Event: The Fourth Halving Comes to Pass, Entering a New Phase of the Cycle
On April 20, 2024, the Bitcoin network completed its fourth block reward halving, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. The daily new supply decreased from approximately 900 BTC to about 450 BTC, and the annual inflation rate officially fell below 1% (to 0.85%), making it one of the lowest inflation assets globally.
Reviewing the price performance after the previous three halvings:
• 2012 First Halving: 12-month subsequent increase of about 100 times
• 2016 Second Halving: 12-month subsequent increase of about 30 times
• 2020 Third Halving: 12-month subsequent increase of about 7 times
Unlike the previous three, the core feature of this halving is that institutional funds have become the absolute dominant force, with retail investor share continuously declining, market volatility significantly reducing, and the cycle logic shifting from "pure speculation" to "macro asset allocation."
As of April 2026, institutions hold approximately 24%-28% of the circulating BTC supply, up about 17 percentage points from the 2020 halving.
2. Supply and Demand Landscape: Rigid Supply Contraction and Structural Demand Explosion
1. Supply Side: Further Strengthening of Absolute Scarcity
After the halving, Bitcoin’s annual new supply is only about 164k coins, while the global annual gold supply is about 3,000 tons (corresponding to a market value of approximately $1.8 trillion). Bitcoin’s scarcity has far surpassed gold. Bloomberg Industry Research estimates that if current demand growth continues, the BTC supply-demand gap in 2026 will reach 100k–120k coins, the highest in history.
More critically, the selling pressure from long-term holders (holding for over a year) continues to decrease. As of April 25, long-term holder addresses account for 74%-76% of the total, a record high, and net outflows over the past 30 days are only about 12k coins, far below the average after previous halvings, indicating a significant increase in market consensus on long-term value.
2. Demand Side: Continuous Influx of Three Major Capital Inflows
• Spot ETF Funds: Since the launch of the US Bitcoin spot ETF in January 2025, net inflows have exceeded $78–85 billion, with BlackRock’s iBIT product alone seeing net inflows of over $40–42 billion. In the first week after the halving, daily ETF net inflows peaked at $1.6–1.87 billion, a historic second-high.
• Sovereign Funds and Pensions: By Q1 2026, 15–17 sovereign funds and 20–23 large pension funds have allocated BTC, with total holdings exceeding $11–12 billion. The Canada Pension Plan (CPP) holds $2.8 billion, becoming the first national pension fund to make a large-scale BTC allocation.
• Corporate Treasuries: Besides Tesla and MicroStrategy, since 2026, 30–32 S&P 500 component companies have included BTC on their balance sheets, with total holdings surpassing $14–15 billion. Corporate allocations have shifted from "occasional experiments" to "widespread acceptance."
3. Institutional Consensus: BTC Becomes a Standard Asset Class Allocation
A Bloomberg survey of 120 major global asset management firms shows that 62%-68% have incorporated BTC into their portfolios, a 32 percentage point increase from early 2025. Among them, 42%-45% allocate 1%-3%, and 10%-12% allocate over 5%.
The core logic recognized by institutions:
1. Inflation Hedge Property: In the context of ongoing global central bank easing and fiat currency devaluation, BTC’s fixed supply makes it one of the best inflation-hedging assets.
2. Low Correlation: BTC’s correlation with US stocks and US bonds has remained below 0.3 for a long time, effectively diversifying traditional investment risks.
3. Liquidity Improvement: The launch of spot ETFs has significantly enhanced BTC’s liquidity, with bid-ask spreads decreasing from 0.5% in 2020 to 0.05% now, approaching the liquidity levels of mainstream stocks.
Goldman Sachs’s latest research report states that if the global asset management industry allocates 1% of assets to BTC, the market cap would reach $3.5 trillion, about 70% higher than current levels; increasing the allocation to 3% could push the market cap beyond $10 trillion.
4. Macroeconomic Environment: Rate Cut Expectations Delayed, Liquidity Still Favorable
The current macro environment remains favorable for BTC, but the Federal Reserve has not entered a rate-cutting cycle. At the March FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, with no rate cuts, and due to Middle East conflicts and rising oil prices, rate cut expectations have been significantly postponed.
Market expectations: at most one rate cut in 2026 (25 basis points), likely in the second half of the year, rather than the 3–4 cuts initially forecasted. The rate-cut cycle has not yet begun, but liquidity remains ample, and real interest rates have not tightened further, continuing to benefit risk assets and cryptocurrencies.
Historical patterns show that rising rate cut expectations often benefit BTC more than actual rate cuts. Currently, the market is pricing in "possible rate cuts in the second half," combined with a weakening dollar, which continues to benefit BTC priced in USD. Additionally, uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election are boosting safe-haven demand.
If policies stabilize and regulatory frameworks become clearer, it will further support BTC’s value as an alternative asset.
Bitcoin’s fourth halving marks a new phase in its historical cycle. The rigid contraction of supply and the structural explosion of demand create a strong supply-demand gap, while ongoing institutional inflows are reshaping market valuation systems.
In the short term, BTC may fluctuate between $70,000 and $90,000 to digest profit-taking after the halving; in the medium to long term, with increasing institutional allocations and further macroeconomic easing, BTC is expected to surpass $100k by the end of 2026 and aim for $150,000 in 2027.
For investors, BTC is no longer a high-risk speculative asset but an important component of macro asset allocation.