The funding rate has gotten a bit extreme again lately. A bunch of people in the group are asking whether they should go and take the other side of the trade. To be blunt, I’m more inclined to dodge the volatility first—I’d rather take a smaller bite than have my decisions dragged around by emotions, only to end up swinging back and forth. When things get extreme, the other side can look really tempting. But I’ve already been burned by that feeling of, “You think you’re collecting taxes, but you’re really just applying leverage to yourself.” My memory may not be great, but the pain is real.

Some people also interpret things like large transfers on-chain and unusual movements between exchanges’ hot and cold wallets as “smart money” signals. I’ll take a look too, but I won’t follow immediately. A lot of the time, it’s just people moving funds, doing market making, or rebalancing—then the stories get stitched together afterward. Anyway, I’ll just keep waiting, waiting until the funding rate isn’t so sharp before considering an entry, and making the time to pay attention to who in the community is starting to seriously produce content and who’s still around. That actually matters.