I was just watching the Federal Reserve Chair's speech, and there was indeed something interesting. Powell practically hinted that quantitative tightening could end in the coming months. This is clearly positive for the markets — it signals a halt to liquidity withdrawal from the system.

I also noticed that Powell's speech contained a signal that even a potential shutdown wouldn't prevent the Fed from making a decision on interest rates at the October 29 meeting. This shows the seriousness of their approach to the current situation.

What stood out most from his words: the labor market is clearly weakening — data shows low hiring and layoffs. Since July, a noticeable slowdown has been evident. Demand for labor is growing, but not as fast as before. These labor market risks were the reason for the rate cut in September.

The US economy is currently roughly at the same level as a month ago — with no sharp jumps. However, data before the shutdown indicated that growth could be better than expected. The Fed has alternative sources of information beyond official statistics.

Regarding monetary policy — Powell believes the current course is effective and says they have room for greater flexibility with the balance sheet. But there's a nuance with tariffs — they increase price pressures, and there's a risk this could lead to sustained inflation.

The most interesting part: Powell explicitly said there is no risk-free path for policy. Moving too quickly to cut rates could leave the fight against inflation unfinished. So, everything will depend on the macro data that will come in the future. The coming months promise to be dynamic.