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Over the past two days, I’ve seen everyone again tying together ETF fund flows and U.S. stock risk appetite into their interpretation. When crypto is up, they say “money’s coming in.” When it’s down, they say “risk off.” It sounds pretty lively, but when I review things myself, what I fear more is this: time is quietly eating me up.
Put simply, option buyers are buying “extremes that might happen at some point in the future.” If the market doesn’t move and volatility isn’t enough, your money gets gnawed away, one bite at a time, by time value. Sellers, on the other hand, are selling that uncertainty—they mainly make money from time passing. But once a big needle—something way beyond expectations—shows up, all the stuff you’ve chewed on before isn’t enough to spit back out what it cost.
My approach now is: spot as the base, and options only to hedge against extremes. I keep the buyer’s position smaller—I’d rather lose in a clear, unmistakable way… than keep watching time bleed away every day. Honestly, it’s a bit unbearable. I’m fried. For now, that’s it.