In the past, when I saw large on-chain transfers, I would get itchy and think "whales are moving," but now I mostly hold back: Is this transfer really for building a position, or is it for hedging, arbitrage, or even topping up the exchange's margin? To put it simply, before copying trades, check whether they have options positions or if the funding rate is squeezing others; transferring to a CEX doesn't necessarily mean dumping, often it's just a change of location for risk control.

The economic collapse of on-chain games is even more obvious: when inflation kicks in, studios run away, and token prices slide, the blockchain is full of actions that look like smart money, but in reality, it might just be retreating and hedging. Anyway, I now prefer to earn a little less rather than be led by a transfer record, so I’d rather think through stop-loss and position management first.