I recently read a rather interesting report on demographic projections. Several universities, including Tsinghua, have published detailed forecasts on China's population until 2100, and honestly, the numbers are thought-provoking.

The central scenario predicts that China's population will reach about 1.4 billion in 2025, then decline to 1.25 billion by 2050. By 2100, depending on various fertility scenarios, we could see the population drop between 320 and 590 million. That's a massive contraction. To give you perspective, in 1950, we were at 552 million. So by the end of the century, we would almost return to post-war levels.

What really stands out is the trajectory. In 1980, we surpassed 981 million. In 2000, we were at 1.26 billion. In 2020, we hit the peak at 1.41 billion. And now? The birth rate in 2024 was only 6.77 per thousand, with 9.54 million births. We have officially entered a phase of demographic decline.

But here’s the real issue. What does this mean concretely? First, the real estate market. With fewer people, house prices can no longer rise as they did before. Of course, major metropolises like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen will remain relatively protected thanks to migration inflows. But small cities and rural areas? It will be brutal. Many people build large houses in their villages, but honestly, that might be a bad long-term strategy. Better to save for the next generation.

The real challenge is that demographic decline is happening just as society is aging. Fewer workers, more retirees. The economy cannot grow rapidly without major technological innovation. Look at South Korea and Japan—they are in the same situation. Why? Because wealth is earned through hard work, which creates enormous living pressure. In the past, having children meant additional workers. Now, it’s a colossal investment with uncertain returns. That discourages couples.

On the stock market, it’s complicated. Theoretically, listed companies should be the most competitive. But the A-share market, honestly, is a legal casino. What matters is whether capital flows in or out. If new accounts increase and money floods in, prices go up. If the opposite happens, they fall. It’s cyclical. Warren Buffett said it well: when others are greedy, I’m afraid; when others are afraid, I buy.

The real question now is how China’s population will adapt to this structural change. Will negative growth really reduce social pressure? Maybe. But there’s also a risk of losing collective energy. To be continued.