Hawkish hints in Fed minutes; Walmart to report - what’s moving markets

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Thu, February 19, 2026 at 6:19 PM GMT+9 5 min read

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Investing.com - Futures linked to the main U.S. stock indices rise, suggesting an extension to tech-driven gains in the previous session. Analysts assess hawkish overtones in minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, while oil climbs as military activity in the Middle East exacerbates worries over potential supply disruptions. Walmart and Deere are due to report quarterly results, providing possible insight into the state of key portions of the American economy.

1. Futures edge higher

U.S. stock futures pointed higher on Thursday, as investors parsed through minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting and looked ahead to earnings from retail and industrial sector bellwethers.

By 03:09 ET (08:09 GMT), the Dow futures contract had risen by 30 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures had climbed by 16 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had increased by 86 points, or 0.3%.

The main averages on Wall Street all advanced on Wednesday, powered by a climb shares of artificial intelligence-darling Nvidia. While sentiment around the semiconductor giant was bolstered by a multi-year deal to sell its current and next-generation chips to Facebook-owner Meta Platforms, investors are also beginning to gear up for the firm’s hotly-anticipated earnings next week. Nvidia’s results have often served as markers of the state of the AI boom.

Gains were notched elsewhere in the tech sector, particularly in names like SanDisk and Seagate Technology, whose digital storage services have become vital for the AI industry.

The increases helped to soothe some market jitters around when eventual returns will be seen from massive investments into AI infrastructure like data centers. Software stocks also ticked up, an upbeat session for a segment which has recently been rocked by perceived disruption risks from emerging AI models.

2. Hawkish hints in Fed minutes

Meanwhile, investors were pouring through minutes from the Fed’s January meeting in a search for any clues around the potential path ahead for U.S. interest rates.

Many analysts underlined a statement from the central bank which said that “several participants” indicated that they would have supported a “two-sided description” of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee’s future rate decisions – a possible sign that rate hikes could be in the cards should inflation remain above the Fed’s 2% target level.

Following the Fed’s move last month to push pause on a rate-cutting cycle which stretched back into the middle of 2025, most observers have been widely expecting officials to resume reductions later this year. Given recent indications of a resilient labor market and slowing – albeit stubbornly elevated – prices, some have bet that the Fed could roll out another cut as soon as June.

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That bet is still broadly intact, although the minutes showed that the Fed is largely in “wait-and-see mode,” analysts at Capital Economics said in a note. Kevin Warsh, long-time rate cut advocate President Donald Trump’s pick to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, could also struggle to “convince his new colleagues of the need” to reduce borrowing costs aggressively, they added.

3. Middle East fears push oil prices up

Oil prices ticked up, as heightened military activity in the Middle East raised fears of potential disruptions to oil flows from this key region.

Brent futures last gained 1% to $71.04 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 1.1% to $65.74 a barrel.

Both benchmarks settled more than 4% higher on Wednesday, posting their highest settlements since January 30.

Media reports stating heightened military and naval activity in the Persian Gulf have reinforced market perceptions of supply vulnerability.

At the same time, hopes for any easing of sanctions on Russian energy exports faded after Russia-Ukraine talks produced no breakthrough.

Further support came from industry data showing a tighter U.S. supply picture, as the American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. crude stockpiles fell by about 609,000 barrels in the week to Feb. 13.

Official government data from the Energy Information Administration is due later on Thursday.

4. Walmart to report

Walmart will be one of the headliners of the earnings calendar on Thursday.

Shares of the big-box giant have soared this year, bringing its market capitalization above the $1 trillion mark and making it by far the largest player in the consumer staples sector.

Given the importance of consumer expenditures to U.S. activity, results from Walmart, whose lower prices for essential items have boosted sales among inflation-hit customers, could serve up another glimpse into the state of American economy during the crucial holiday shopping season.

It will also help establish the tone prior to the release of earnings from fellow retailers like Home Depot and Target in the coming weeks. Together, the returns could help clarify a picture of the U.S. as a two-speed or “K-shaped” economy, where high-income households and corporations continue to spend, while lower-income consumers grapple with cost-of-living pressures.

5. Deere crossing ahead

Elsewhere, Deere and Company will also report before the opening bell.

Long considered to be a barometer of the industrial sector, Deere flagged in November that it would face a significant hit from sweeping U.S. tariffs in 2026.

This, in turn, is expected to weigh on profit margins at the farm-equipment manufacturer, although CEO John May said the impact may be somewhat mitigated by steady demand for its forestry and small agricultural products as well as cost cutting measures.

Before taxes, the levies, which have slammed companies like Deere that rely on raw material imports, are seen denting Deere’s results by roughly $1.2 billion in fiscal 2026. Last year, the hit was about $600 million.

At the same time, a downturn in crop prices and increased production expenses have caused many farmers to forego purchases of large agricultural equipment like tractors, and opt for rentals or preowned units instead.

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