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Ferrovial shares slip as 407 ETR results trail expectations
Ferrovial shares slip as 407 ETR results trail expectations
Vahid Karaahmetovic
Thu, February 19, 2026 at 6:11 PM GMT+9 2 min read
In this article:
FER
+0.84%
Investing.com – Ferrovial’s 407 ETR toll-road asset delivered fourth-quarter results below market consensus, with some moderation in traffic and EBITDA growth compared with the previous quarter.
The company’s shares slipped around 1.3% in early trading.
Fourth-quarter revenue came in at CAD479 million, up 9.4% year over year, missing the CAD503 million consensus. EBITDA rose 9.2% to CAD404 million, also below the CAD426 million expected by the market.
Traffic increased 5.7% year over year, slowing from 9.4% growth in the third quarter, while average revenue per trip rose 7.1%.
BofA analyst Marcin Wojtal said that this print “reads differently to ETR’s Q3 (which represented a major beat on nearly all main metrics),” but said the longer-term outlook remains intact.
“We believe ETR’s growth outlook is looking very solid for 2026, given the already announced tariff increase (in effect from 1 Jan 2026), which we estimate to be at c.25%,” he wrote, adding that he forecasts EBITDA growth of 23% year over year in 2026.
Dividend for fiscal 2025 came in at CAD1.5 billion, up 36% year over year, although this had already been flagged with third-quarter results. BofA projects dividend growth of 23% in 2026 and expects Ferrovial to continue re-levering the asset, which it views as supportive for valuation and the net cash position at the holding company level.
Looking ahead to Ferrovial’s consolidated figures due on 25 February, BofA expects 2025 consolidated EBITDA of €1.39 billion, compared with consensus at €1.42 billion. For the Toll Roads division, it forecasts EBITDA of €1.002 billion, about 1% below the €1.048 billion consensus.
Wojtal maintained a Buy rating and a €67 price objective on the stock, citing “the long-duration and the strong pricing power of Ferrovial’s main motorway assets in Canada and the U.S.
The bank includes the stock on its “25 for 2026” list of best ideas.
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